362 
FXUS64 KLZK 052342 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
542 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT WILL
FILL IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE KEPT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
MAY HAVE SOME BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES 
THROUGH THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH THROUGH A GOOD 
PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY...YET A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY 
ANTICIPATED. CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THIN ACROSS NORTHEAST 
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CREEPING 
UP NEAR 1000 J/KG. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT SITS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL 
OKLAHOMA AND IS NOT FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL 
FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AS THE 
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ARKANSAS. WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR...AND 
INCREASING CAPE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. BESIDES THESE 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
ADDITIONAL QPF TO THE CWA.

COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS SLOW 
TO CLEAR AROUND THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE 
COOLEST OF THE SHORT TERM...YET STILL TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER 
GUIDANCE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NORTH OF 
THE GREAT LAKES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE 
RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS WEAK. AT THIS TIME CONTINUE TO THINK 
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. 

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED MEANING THAT ONE SOLUTION CAN NOT 
REALLY BE FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER. 

PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT STREAM PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN PERIOD 
INITIALIZES WITH NORTHERN BRANCH REMAINING MUCH MORE ACTIVE VERSUS 
ITS SOUTHERN COUNTERPART. GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW WITH A SLIGHT 
NORTHWEST COMPONENT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH A WEAK 
TROUGH NOW EXPECTED IN THE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

GFS ONLY BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH MINIMAL QPF WHILE THERE IS 
NO HINT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE ECMWF. WILL GO WITH A DRY 
FORECAST NOW AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AT THIS POINT. 
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...UPPER FLOW REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL 
THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58