285 
FXUS63 KEAX 221145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive 
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough 
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern 
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across 
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly 
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle, 
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the 
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the 
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across 
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn't 
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone's highs into at 
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri 
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast 
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a 
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder 
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on 
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few 
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity. 
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday 
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories 
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across 
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept 
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but 
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold 
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move 
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However, 
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation 
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air 
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before 
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything. 

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region 
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs 
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which 
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A combination of IFR to LIFR conditions are prevailing at the
terminals early this morning as low clouds and drizzle dominate the
region. These restrictive conditions will likely improve towards the
noon time hour into the low end of the MVFR range for the afternoon.
Conditions will likely deteriorate again this evening, but confidence on
how far down to push the flight category is a bit low. Therefore have
left conditions on the low end edge of MVFR, but think IFR conditions
might develop later in the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect surface
winds to remain from the south through the day. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter