National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDILX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDILX
Product Timestamp: 2014-11-20 16:31 UTC
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535 FXUS63 KILX 201631 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014 Forecast for today on track and only small tweaks to wind gusts required this morning. Weak trough pushing southeast over the area has produced a few clouds south of I-72 particularly areas that still have snow on the ground. behind the trough, skies are sunny to mostly sunny allowing some momentum from higher winds several thousand feet off surface. Have increased wind gusts for today in the grids. Surface ridge over Mississippi Valley pushes east into Illinois by late in the day and a drop off in winds and gusts are expected by mid- afternoon. Diurnal effects should take care of any remnant gusting by 00z. Otherwise, current forecast in good shape. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014 Expansive trof aloft still dominating the weather map this morning. Cold front has slipped through the area and just south of the Ohio River Valley this morning. High pressure building into the region at the sfc, and plenty of cold air surging back into the region keeping the max temperatures well below normal again today, and expected through the end of the week. Mostly westerly winds today will be brisk, and with the cold temps expected, the wind chills will drop into the single digits this morning, and the teens this afternoon. Models in pretty good agreement through the forecast with some minor shifts here and there, but no major changes to the forecast with this run. Forecast issues revolve around chances for freezing rain on Friday night, and extensive precip through the weekend in the form of rain. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014 Cold air remains anchored over the region through the end of the week, though more southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday in advance of a developing system to the SW. The main issue in the forecast is the advancement of the rain while the sfc remains below zero. Too dry aloft for crystals to support snow, and threat for fzra is increasing with the precip preceding the warm up at the sfc after the sun sets Friday evening. Struggle remains in the models in the last few runs with regards to timing...and the sfc temps are now warming very quickly in the GFS. For now, am throwing out that concept as the concern remains that it will take longer to erode the significant cold airmass over frozen ground. So far, little ice accumulation is showing in the qpf...with temps struggling near freezing that night in Central Illinois...as far south as Decatur through midnight...lingering into the early morning hours. Models still lacking in timing and the pop spread remains in the forecast yet again from the slow ECMWF into Mon night/Tues. Best chances for the weekend is in the high chance/likely category for precip, though the temperature profile for now is still indicating rain Saturday through Sunday, as the low lifts right through the region. With timing issues, am keeping the likely mention to a minimum with the exception of the Saturday night/Sunday...which is at least consistent with 24 hrs ago. That being said, a gap between the precip with the warm frontal development and the core of the storm is developing which may provide a break within that time frame. Either way...the weekend looks wet, with the majority of the qpf expected on Sunday, and over an inch storm total expected through the weekend. Temps struggling into the 50s will give Central Illinois a break from the cold for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014 Another band of mostly VFR cigs was tracking southeast into parts of west central Illinois early this morning and should affect all our TAF sites in the next several hours, although the last few satellite loops indicate the northern edge of the cloud shield beginning to erode which may keep the bulk of the broken to overcast cigs south of I-74. Bases of cigs will range from 3000 to 3500 feet with the backedge of cloud deck clearing our area by late morning or early afternoon as high pressure settles into Midwest. Other than the clouds tracking thru parts of the area this morning, the weather should be quiet thru tonight with VFR conditions expected. Surface winds will be out of the west today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts possible up to 20kts this afternoon, especially at KBMI and KCMI. Winds should become light and variable tonight as the center of the high shifts over our area. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barker SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Smith