AFOS product AFDILX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDILX
Product Timestamp: 2014-11-20 16:31 UTC

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535 
FXUS63 KILX 201631
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Forecast for today on track and only small tweaks to wind gusts
required this morning.

Weak trough pushing southeast over the area has produced a few
clouds south of I-72 particularly areas that still have snow on
the ground. behind the trough, skies are sunny to mostly sunny
allowing some momentum from higher winds several thousand feet off
surface. Have increased wind gusts for today in the grids. Surface
ridge over Mississippi Valley pushes east into Illinois by late
in the day and a drop off in winds and gusts are expected by mid-
afternoon. Diurnal effects should take care of any remnant gusting
by 00z.

Otherwise, current forecast in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Expansive trof aloft still dominating the weather map this  
morning.  Cold front has slipped through the area and just south of 
the Ohio River Valley this morning.  High pressure building into the 
region at the sfc, and plenty of cold air surging back into the 
region keeping the max temperatures well below normal again today, 
and expected through the end of the week.  Mostly westerly winds 
today will be brisk, and with the cold temps expected, the wind 
chills will drop into the single digits this morning, and the teens 
this afternoon.  Models in pretty good agreement through the 
forecast with some minor shifts here and there, but no major changes 
to the forecast with this run. Forecast issues revolve around 
chances for freezing rain on Friday night, and extensive precip 
through the weekend in the form of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Cold air remains anchored over the region through the end of the 
week, though more southerly winds will begin to set up late Friday 
in advance of a developing system to the SW. The main issue in the 
forecast is the advancement of the rain while the sfc remains below 
zero.  Too dry aloft for crystals to support snow, and threat for 
fzra is increasing with the precip preceding the warm up at the sfc 
after the sun sets Friday evening.  Struggle remains in the models 
in the last few runs with regards to timing...and the sfc temps are 
now warming very quickly in the GFS.  For now, am throwing out that 
concept as the concern remains that it will take longer to erode the 
significant cold airmass over frozen ground.  So far, little ice 
accumulation is showing in the qpf...with temps struggling near 
freezing that night in Central Illinois...as far south as Decatur 
through midnight...lingering into the early morning hours. Models 
still lacking in timing and the pop spread remains in the forecast 
yet again from the slow ECMWF into Mon night/Tues.  Best chances for 
the weekend is in the high chance/likely category for precip, though 
the temperature profile for now is still indicating rain Saturday 
through Sunday, as the low lifts right through the region. With 
timing issues, am keeping the likely mention to a minimum with the 
exception of the Saturday night/Sunday...which is at least 
consistent with 24 hrs ago.  That being said, a gap between the 
precip with the warm frontal development and the core of the storm 
is developing which may provide a break within that time frame.  
Either way...the weekend looks wet, with the majority of the qpf 
expected on Sunday, and over an inch storm total expected through 
the weekend.  Temps struggling into the 50s will give Central 
Illinois a break from the cold for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Another band of mostly VFR cigs was tracking southeast into parts
of west central Illinois early this morning and should affect all
our TAF sites in the next several hours, although the last few
satellite loops indicate the northern edge of the cloud shield
beginning to erode which may keep the bulk of the broken to
overcast cigs south of I-74. Bases of cigs will range from 3000 to 
3500 feet with the backedge of cloud deck clearing our area by late
morning or early afternoon as high pressure settles into Midwest.
Other than the clouds tracking thru parts of the area this morning,
the weather should be quiet thru tonight with VFR conditions 
expected. Surface winds will be out of the west today at 10 to 15
kts with a few gusts possible up to 20kts this afternoon, especially
at KBMI and KCMI. Winds should become light and variable tonight
as the center of the high shifts over our area. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith