666 
FXUS63 KFSD 162330
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA 
TODAY WHICH IS BRINGING A QUICK INCREASE TO NORTHWEST WINDS. PARTS 
OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE SEEN GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH IS 
CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING BUT SO FAR NO MAJOR VISIBILITY 
REDUCTIONS IN MOST CASES. SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ALSO 
CREEPING THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL REACH AREAS 
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THESE SNOW SHOWERS...COUPLED WITH 
BLOWING SNOW...WILL AT TIMES REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE. 
MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO END BY ABOUT 2Z OR 3Z 
THIS EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE 
MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS IN PLACES FROM ABOUT 6Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT 
WITH JUST A TOUCH OF MIXING ON MONDAY MORNING WINDS GUSTS WILL AGAIN 
APPROACH 35 TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY 
IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT IS. ALONG WITH THE 
STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES. 
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS OF MAINLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WHEN 
COUPLED WITH THE WINDS THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CREEP DOWN TO 
ABOUT 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. 
WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES 
WILL REBOUND VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 9 TO 14 
ABOVE. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...SO THE WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW LOOKS GOOD FOR THE AREA. NO 
CHANGES EXPECTED TO IT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF MONDAY EVENING WITH WEAK RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WEST SLIPPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
AS FLOW TURNS TOWARD WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT...
THIS SHOULD HELP TO DECOUPLE...AND ANY LOWER CLOUDS LIKELY TO
DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS VERY LATE
SHOULD LEAD TO MAXIMIZING THE DROP IN WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHADE TOWARD LOWER RANGES OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS WARM ALOFT QUITE A
BIT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE/COM DROPPING SOUTHEAST...BUT
INCREASED STABILITY AND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECT WARMING WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN COMPARISON.

COLD FRONT CRASHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY MIX OUT SOMEWHAT FOR A WHILE BEFORE TAILING OFF LATE. 
30 TO 35 KNOTS WIND AGAIN WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER...WITH TEMPS
AGAIN FALLING INTO THE RANGE LIKELY TO PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES.
DO NOT EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AFTER SHORTER
TERM COMPACTION AND PASSAGE OF SEVERAL DAYS. MOVING AHEAD...GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD PUNCH INTO THE PLAINS WITH WAVE DIGGING
MORE WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA...BUT SEEMS TO NOT BE AS SUPPORTED IN
THE ENSEMBLES...AS NEITHER DOES THE MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER WAVE
IN THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. OVERALL...APPEARS CORE OF THE COLDER AIR
WILL SLIP DOWN ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT RIDGE
EVACUATING TO EAST RATHER THAN BUILDING IN. WINDOW FOR BETTER
COOLING SHOULD BE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.

FINALLY SEE SIGNS OF SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPS...BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS FLOW GOES ZONAL. SPLIT TROUGHING IN
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE
INTENSE WITH LEADING ENERGY THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WEAKER LEAD WAVE AND MORE HOLDING BACK WITH BETTER PV
RESERVOIR TO DRAW ON. WHILE HAVE NOT SETTLED IN ON MENTION OF 
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH MORE POTENTIAL SHALLOW/NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. PRETTY INTERESTING POTENTIAL
AND WILL WARRANT WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

CEILINGS MOSTLY 3-5K FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS 2-3K FEET.
FREQUENT VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES 1-3SM IN BLOWING SNOW. OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 17/21Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY 17/21Z-00Z AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ039-040-
     054>056-060>062-065>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ038-050-052-
     053-057>059-063-064.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...