826 
FXUS65 KTFX 111047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Light snow and flurries continue to
affect much of the region this morning. However...most of the
snowfall is very light...and not even showing up on radar. Thus
any new snow accumulations today will generally be less than a
quarter of an inch. Drier air will start to move into the region
by late afternoon...thus mostly dry conditions are then expected
tonight through Thursday morning. The next storm system will move
into the region late Thursday afternoon. This storm system should
mainly affect areas south of Great Falls to Lewistown line. The
main concern for today through Thursday though will be the very
cold temperatures and wind chills. Overnight lows will continue to
average between 5 below and 15 below over the next few nights. If
we do happen to clear out a bit towards sunrise...temperatures
could be a few degrees colder. Wind chills are running close to 20
below this morning in many areas...thus the wind chill advisory
will remain in effect. There is the potential that another wind
chill highlight might be needed tonight...but winds will be a bit
lighter. Thus we will continue to look at that closely today.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...The wet and cold pattern persists 
to start the medium range period. A strong shortwave swings across 
the area Thursday night and Friday bringing with it a large tap of 
Pacific moisture. Models place central Montana under the greatest 
threat for accumulating snow. By Friday night, the shortwave has 
moved rapidly to the east with snow lingering over the mountains of 
southwest Montana and over eastern portions of the county warning 
area. Saturday will be dry but the northerly flow aloft will keep 
cold air in place over the area. 500mb heights rise on Sunday as a 
shortwave ridge develops over western Montana. Warmer air returns 
with afternoon readings approaching the freezing mark. Upper ridging 
continues Monday though moisture moving through the ridge axis will 
allow isolated snow showers to develop over the Rocky Mountains and 
over the mountains of southwest Montana. Monday night and Tuesday 
will see an increasing chance for scattered snow showers as the next 
shortwave begins to approach the area from the west. Temperatures 
will remain well below seasonal averages to start the period. 
Afternoon readings will moderate Sunday as temperatures approach the 
30 degree mark. Temperatures will be mostly in the 30s to start the 
week though these values continue to be below seasonal averages. The 
exception being southwest Montana where some areas will see readings 
in the 40s on Tuesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in snow along with mountain obscurement 
will affect the forecast area except for north central Montana early 
in the period. Snow will mostly end by 12z. The main forecast 
problem late tonight through Tuesday evening will be what the sky 
condition will be. Guidance ranges anywhere from MVFR ceilings to no 
ceilings. Hence have low confidence in sky forecasts in the tafs. 
Also IFR visibilities in freezing fog will be possible Tuesday 
morning over portions of southwest Montana and central Montana. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   5 -15   8  -9 /  20  10   0   0 
CTB   6 -15   8 -12 /  20  10   0   0 
HLN  10  -8  12  -6 /  20  10   0   0 
BZN   9 -17  10 -15 /  30  10   0   0 
WEY   8 -17  13 -10 /  20   0   0   0 
DLN  10 -13  12  -7 /  20  10   0   0 
HVR   9 -17   8 -16 /  50  10   0   0 
LWT   5 -13  10  -9 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon MST today for all of North Central
and Southwest Montana.

&&

$$

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