114 
FXUS64 KLZK 092018
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE STRONG ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS
GUSTY. LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL LAKE WIND SITUATION...SO HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. 

THE STORY HASN/T REALLY CHANGED MUCH THE LAST FEW DAYS.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOSTLY BE POST-FRONTAL ON TUESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHS BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AT BEST. 

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED
MOVEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE MOST APPRECIABLE EFFECTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS. 
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PERSISTENT NRLY SFC FLOW WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG 
TERM PERIOD...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH 
INTO THE STATE. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH 
THU AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN 
COUNTIES...TO THE 40S FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE 
DROPPED A FEW MORE DEG AS A CLOUDY SKY COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT 
NRN WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS EVEN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. DRY 
AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ON FRI...WITH MAYBE A DEG OR 
TWO WARMER THAN THU POSSIBLE. 

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST AND SW ON 
SAT...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN HOW 
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE THE COLD AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS ACROSS THE 
REGION TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO 
INCREASE...INCLUDING FOR PARTS OF AR. THE QUESTION WILL THEN 
BE...HOW MUCH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE 
STATE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS STORM 
SYSTEM IS STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS AWAY...THE EXTENT OF THE POTENTIAL 
WINTRY PRECIP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CONTINUE TO MENTION GENERALLY 
RAIN...BUT HAVE PORTIONS OF THE NRN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA SEEING 
SOME WINTRY PRECIP STARTING SAT...CONTINUING INTO SUN. THIS 
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE DURING COLDEST PARTS OF THAT PERIOD. 
WILL EMPHASIZE AGAIN...MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST THIS FAR OUT...AND 
MANY CHANGES AND REFINEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST IN THE 
COMING WEEK. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  68  51  55 /   0   0  20  30 
CAMDEN AR         41  73  58  65 /   0   0  20  30 
HARRISON AR       43  67  40  46 /   0   0  20  20 
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  70  56  59 /   0   0  20  30 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  70  55  61 /   0   0  20  30 
MONTICELLO AR     43  71  58  68 /   0   0  20  30 
MOUNT IDA AR      39  70  54  56 /   0   0  20  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  67  44  50 /   0   0  20  20 
NEWPORT AR        43  68  53  55 /   0   0  20  40 
PINE BLUFF AR     42  71  56  63 /   0   0  20  30 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  69  52  56 /   0   0  20  30 
SEARCY AR         38  69  50  57 /   0   0  20  30 
STUTTGART AR      43  70  55  58 /   0   0  20  30 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62