AFOS product AFDRLX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDRLX
Product Timestamp: 2014-10-26 17:36 UTC

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930 
FXUS61 KRLX 261743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES 
ON ALL HOLLOWS EVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES. 

630 AM UPDATE...
THE AXIS OF DENSE FOG WAS WANING...AS WAS THE STRATOCU IN THE 
MOUNTAINS...AS THE FRONT FINALLY APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED THROUGH ALL 
BUT THE SRN COAL FIELDS...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE RAISED EARLY THIS 
MORNING TO REFLECT.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AN AXIS OF DENSE FOG PERSISTED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS THE 
FRONT BECAME BOGGED DOWN W OF THE OHIO RIVER.  THE FRONT DID MIX 
THROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL MIX THROUGH ACROSS THE 
LOWLANDS BY DAYBREAK...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND THE FOG WILL NOT 
BECOME ANY MORE OF A PROBLEM BEFORE IT IS MIXED OUT.  GUSTY WINDS 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE RIDGES...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  PATCHY STRATOCU IN AND JUST W OF THE 
MOUNTAINS ON UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BREAK UP BY 12Z THIS MORNING...AS 
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.

OTHERWISE ITS EASY LIKE SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SAILS ACROSS 
THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WITH NOT SO MUCH AS A CLOUD IN THE SKY ONCE 
THE STRATOCU IS GONE.  THE FRONT LAYS DOWN W TO E ACROSS THE TN 
VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE STARTING TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.  
THIS WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUD TOWARD 12Z MON.  VALLEY FOG IS 
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER BETTER SHELTERED 
VALLEYS E OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD...WITH JUST A LITTLE OF THE MAV BLENDED IN 
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...TO BETTER ACCENT A RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION. RESULTS IN LITTLE 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY...WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME 
HIGHS AS WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MANY 
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. 
FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. LEANED MORE ON THE 
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AS FAR AS TRACKING 
FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND SET BY 
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD 
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN 
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY 
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE 
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED 
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE 
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY 
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. 
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL 
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY. 
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 12Z...EXCEPT MVFR 
FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYGART VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INCLUDING EKN.
AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY SCATTERED CLDS AOA 4000 FEET NORTHWEST HALF 
WITH A DRY AND WEAK WARM FRONT...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED VFR MOSTLY CLEAR. 
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH BY EVENING...TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT AS THE 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES ACROSS...BUT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER 
12Z AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORMATION 
MVFR VSBY IN THE TYGART VALLEY...OR THE LACK OF IT IN OTHER 
VALLEYS...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JMV