347 
FXUS64 KLZK 201936
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS DIFFERENCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT 
ONE SOLUTION IS FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT WITH MOISTURE 
LEVELS QUITE LIMITED...PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY.   
AS SUCH...A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME

JUST A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS A VERY 
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH A TROUGH...NOW PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS 
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT 
AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT A SMALL ONE...WILL BE 
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS 
A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT WHEN ITS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS. AS IT MOVES EAST INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE 
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED 
AND EVEN THEN JUST OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE 
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE EXTENDED 
TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS 
STATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...WHICH THE MODELS ARE IN 
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND 
GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF GRADUALLY WEAKENS 
AND MOVES THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE 
RIDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND BRINGS A TROF IN FROM THE WEST BY THE END 
OF THE TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO 
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH 
WEAKER FRONT TO A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION JUST NW OF THE CWA.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON 
THE ECMWF...AND WILL WARM MAX TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY AND KEEP THEM 
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WILL ALSO 
PUT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LIKELYHOOD 
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  72  45  68 /  10   0   0   0 
CAMDEN AR         52  79  50  73 /  10   0   0   0 
HARRISON AR       50  72  45  69 /  10   0   0   0 
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  77  49  72 /  10   0   0   0 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  76  48  70 /  10   0   0   0 
MONTICELLO AR     52  79  49  72 /  10   0   0   0 
MOUNT IDA AR      54  77  50  72 /  10   0   0   0 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  72  45  68 /  10   0   0   0 
NEWPORT AR        50  73  45  68 /  10   0   0   0 
PINE BLUFF AR     53  77  49  71 /  10   0   0   0 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  75  47  70 /  10   0   0   0 
SEARCY AR         51  74  47  69 /  10   0   0   0 
STUTTGART AR      52  76  48  70 /  10   0   0   0 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...53