National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCRP
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP
Product Timestamp: 2014-10-18 02:49 UTC
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754 FXUS64 KCRP 180249 AAB AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 949 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .DISCUSSION...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW OFFSHORE WIND TREND THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/ DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281 AND PRIMARILY MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WEST. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED BY 14Z SAT WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DRG THE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY. ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE ERN SECTIONS DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTN MAINLY EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS ELEVATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF. ANTICIPATE A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST/MARINE ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION NEAR THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WARMING TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A PERSISTENT LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CENTERED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WL AFFECT THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY LYR CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY EASTERLY FLOW WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION (MAINLY SRN AND WRN AREAS) FOR THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME. AFTER TUE...A SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. IT WL BE AIDED BY A LOW LVL RDG AXIS NOSING INTO THE CWA AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THE DRIER AIR WL BE MOST NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT ON ANY POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHERN GULF RGN. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME KIND OF LOW PRESSURE AREA ALBEIT WK MAY DEVELOP BY TUE OR WED AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF...TAKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. AS A RESULT...WL LOWER WINDS AND SEAS JUST A BIT FROM THE PRIOR FCST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. STILL LKLY LOOKING AT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AND SEAS APPROACHING SCA LVLS BY TUE AND WED GIVEN THE LONG FETCH OF 15-25KT E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 71 86 71 86 69 / 20 30 20 20 20 VICTORIA 66 86 67 86 65 / 10 20 10 10 10 LAREDO 71 91 71 86 68 / 10 10 20 20 20 ALICE 66 88 69 86 67 / 10 30 20 20 20 ROCKPORT 73 85 73 85 71 / 10 30 10 10 10 COTULLA 66 89 68 85 65 / 10 10 20 20 20 KINGSVILLE 70 88 70 86 68 / 20 30 20 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 74 84 73 84 73 / 20 30 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM
000 FXUS64 KCRP 180249 AFDCRP AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 949 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .DISCUSSION...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW OFFSHORE WIND TREND THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/ DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281 AND PRIMARILY MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WEST. VFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED BY 14Z SAT WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DRG THE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY. ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE ERN SECTIONS DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTN MAINLY EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS ELEVATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF. ANTICIPATE A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST/MARINE ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION NEAR THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WARMING TREND OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A PERSISTENT LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CENTERED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WL AFFECT THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY LYR CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY EASTERLY FLOW WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION (MAINLY SRN AND WRN AREAS) FOR THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME. AFTER TUE...A SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. IT WL BE AIDED BY A LOW LVL RDG AXIS NOSING INTO THE CWA AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THE DRIER AIR WL BE MOST NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT ON ANY POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHERN GULF RGN. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME KIND OF LOW PRESSURE AREA ALBEIT WK MAY DEVELOP BY TUE OR WED AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF...TAKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. AS A RESULT...WL LOWER WINDS AND SEAS JUST A BIT FROM THE PRIOR FCST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. STILL LKLY LOOKING AT MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AND SEAS APPROACHING SCA LVLS BY TUE AND WED GIVEN THE LONG FETCH OF 15-25KT E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 71 86 71 86 69 / 20 30 20 20 20 VICTORIA 66 86 67 86 65 / 10 20 10 10 10 LAREDO 71 91 71 86 68 / 10 10 20 20 20 ALICE 66 88 69 86 67 / 10 30 20 20 20 ROCKPORT 73 85 73 85 71 / 10 30 10 10 10 COTULLA 66 89 68 85 65 / 10 10 20 20 20 KINGSVILLE 70 88 70 86 68 / 20 30 20 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 74 84 73 84 73 / 20 30 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM