733 
FXUS65 KABQ 171120 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AFTER 19Z BUT
GENERALLY AOA 10K FT AGL. THICKEST VFR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD WHERE A FEW LATE DAY -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
ISOLD -TSRA MAY DEVELOP. A RENEWED SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY FORCE MODEST GAP WINDS AT
KABQ AROUND 18/03Z BUT IMPACTS MINIMAL. ELSEWHERE...SFC WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS AT REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH FCST PERIOD.

KJ

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK WILL SHIFT TO A CLOUDIER WEEKEND
AND A SHOWERY WORK WEEK TO COME...AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO LEADS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC AS IT CROSSES THE BAJA
PENINSULA EN ROUTE TO THE EAST AND NORTH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
LIES IN WAIT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF SAN FRANCISCO. AT THE
SURFACE...DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AS
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IN CIRCULATION
ABOUT SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA ATTEMPTS TO SLOP WESTWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. 

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. QUICK HITTER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL ZIP TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY
TONIGHT...AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST DIGS TO THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. AS QUICK ZIP SHORTWAVE SHEARS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WEST COAST TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND THEN CLOSE TO A LOW
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER ESTUARY IN WESTERN ARIZONA. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND..AS REMAINDER OF THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. ABANDONED LOW WILL FILL GRADUALLY OVER SONORA AND
WESTERN CHIHUAHUA...AS NEXT TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
LOSE ITS STRUCTURE AND SLOW UP AS IT MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY
MIDWEEK...AND MAKE AGONIZINGLY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EMERGING FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PAINT A WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD CLOSED
LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...AS DOMESTIC GFS MOVES THIS WEAK
FEATURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN
THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH FEATURES...EITHER THE GFS RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO OR THE COMPANION ECMWF TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS BASICALLY
ONE OF CLOUD COVER...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND
LITTLE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
NOW BETWEEN TWO WEAK FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND PENDING BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

FOR TODAY...QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE OVER PUERTO PENASCO WILL SHEAR
RAPIDLY EAST AND NORTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND JOIN MORE LAMINAR
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INVADES NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTHWARD WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE FLITS
BY. COLD FRONTAL PUSH INTO THE EAST WILL PRODUCE DOUBLE DIGIT
DROPS IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...BRINGING WHAT HAS BEEN A
PRETTY WARM SECTION OF THE STATE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PICK UP EASTERLY COMPONENT BEHIND
THE WESTBOUND COLD FRONT...WITH A SHORT ROUND OF GUSTS SQUIRTING
THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND STALL OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING ON TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND DIFFLUENT
LIMB OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. DYNAMICAL INTERACTION WILL INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND SHIFT FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEST DRYS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
PICK UP MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
SETTING UP IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH COOL AIR IN
PLAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 2 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW MID
OCTOBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT IN THE WEST.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL ABANDON A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLOP THE LEFTOVER
COLD FRONT BACK TO THE EAST AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WARMING TREND WILL PUSH ALL BUT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH CHAVES COUNTY AND ENVIRONS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID OCTOBER. WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH SHIFT IN PATTERN DIRECTION FROM WESTBOUND TO
EASTBOUND AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS RETURNING TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH COUNTRY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE EAST...AND SHOWER COVERAGE
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR MONDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN TO A WAVE OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND DRIFT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST SPOTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS FOR THE DAYTIME HIGH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
WIDESPREAD WITH FOCUS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL...AND COVERAGE
EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WAVE DRIFTS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. TROUGH DRIFT COMBINED WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST SONORA WILL BACK
OFF SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHEAST...FACILITATING AN UP TICK IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...AND
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. 

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE WORK WEEK AS NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY...TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN FLOPS POSITIVE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. COOL PUSH BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL INVADE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND SIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON TAP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT IN
FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS TROUGH BASE SEEMS RELUCTANT TO LEAVE NEW
MEXICO FOR A SOUTHEAST SHEAR INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS FOR LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS MODEST...WITH TUESDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CYCLING AROUND TO NORTHERLY ON
THURSDAY AS TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND COOL PUSH BEHIND THE
TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE STATE.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...UNSETTLED PATTERN FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
THE RECENT STRING OF DRY AND STABLE WEATHER DAYS WILL COME TO AN END 
BEGINNING TODAY AND MORESO INTO THE WEEKEND. A FAIRLY NOTEWORTHY
MOISTENING TREND FOR THE SEASON IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK
DURING THE SUN-TUE PERIOD /150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS/. AS A RESULT...PROSPECTS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALSO TRENDING UPWARD IN THE COMING DAYS AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION...EACH ONE A
BIT STRONGER AND MORE IMPACTFUL THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SUN-WED PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST UNSETTLED OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY WET FOR MANY LOCALES.

THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY 
PASSES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT-SAT AM. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... 
THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AREAS TODAY 
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THUS
PROSPECTS FOR WETTING RAIN WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS INITIAL
WAVE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND
THAT COMBINED WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
BOOST WETTING PRECIP POTENTIAL GOING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AND LIKELY SLOWER TO EVOLVE. 
IT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF NEW MEXICO 
SATURDAY PM INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THIS WAVE CLOSING 
OFF AND DRIFTING SOUTH OVER SONORA MX BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD 
THE EAST MON-MON NIGHT.  THIS EASTWARD TURN WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON 
HOW STRONG AND FAST THE UPSTREAM KICKER WAVE /THIRD AND STRONGEST IN 
THE SERIES/ TRACKS EASTWARD...AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE 
CLOSED LOW OVER NW MEXICO MAY BE SLOWER TO KICK EAST.  AS A 
RESULT...AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET FORECAST LIKELY TO LINGER 
INTO LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHARP DRYING OCCURS 
BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER KICKER WAVE.

SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM 
PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR SUN-TUE.  OTHERWISE...VENTILATION 
RATES TODAY WILL TREND LOWER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS DUE
TO WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VENTILATION
RATES SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY THE WEST AS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THEREAFTER...DAY TO DAY
TRENDS IN VENT RATES WILL LARGELY BE DICTATED BY THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WITH MIXING HEIGHTS TRENDING LOWER AND
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

KJ

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$