032 
FXUS63 KFGF 161501
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NW NORTH DAKOTA AT
15Z. THIS FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY/TONIGHT. INCOMING 12Z MODELS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. 

WILL BE WATCHING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DARKENING (ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE) APPROACHING THIS
AREA. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. 12Z NAM INDICATES 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION BY 18Z...BUT
WEAKENING OVER TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 30-35 KNOTS WITHIN
THE MIXING LAYER. ALL THESE FACTORS PUT TOGETHER WILL LEAD TO NEAR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
30-40MPH WINDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY SINCE THE
30-40MPH WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR AND ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES IF WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN -RA CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

MODELS ALL TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF SFC/UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA TODAY. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK. UPSTREAM PCPN ACROSS MT PRETTY SPOTTY SO AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE POPS TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA CLOSEST TO H7 LOW TRACK. WILL BE
STARTING OUT VERY MILD THIS AM HOWEVER WARMING LIKELY TO BE EARLY
AS STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM DVL BASIN INTO THE VALLEY VALLEY REGION
BY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 

UPPER LOW PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS N MN TONIGHT TO THE WESTERN TIP
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING. EXPECT WRAP AROUND SHRA TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF THE FA. CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER. AS LOW
PUSHES EAST TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS. 

ANY -RA SHOULD DIMINISH FROM VALLEY EASTWARD FRIDAY AM AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WELL BLO AVERAGE. 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SEE MINIMUMS BACK CLOSER TO FREEZING. 

HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY FOR QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BLO AVERAGE. 

RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT SO MINIMUMS NOT
AS COOL. 

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOLNS AS NW 
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO 500MB RIDGE BY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN US. 
AFTER A CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING A DRY 
WEEK IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR 
SUNDAY THEN INTO THE 60S...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY...IF NOT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

TIMING OF WSHFT WITH FROPA CHALLENGES TODAY. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST IN THE DVL BASIN BY MID MORNING REACHING THE VALLEY EARLY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME LOWER CIGS MAY WRAP INTO THE DVL AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER