965 
FXUS63 KFGF 071201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

CANADIAN RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS 
NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. AN AREA OF TRAILING PRECIP 
DISSIPATED AS THE PRECIP APPROACHED THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SNOW 
WAS FALLING FARTHER NORTHEAST IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MAY TWEAK SKY 
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY..OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

UPPER LEVEL OW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH 
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT 
WAVES OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO, THE WEST SHORE OF HUDSON BAY, AND OVER 
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WEST OF HUDSON BAY. ALSO A SHORT WAVE WAS 
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AK SHORE. COMBINATION OF WAVES WILL ROTATE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AK SHORT WAVE TO CLIP NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY 
WED. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING EAST EARLY WED. 

CANADIAN RADAR INDICATED PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST MAN AND SOUTHWEST 
ONTARIO. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS 
MORNING. 

ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN FROM UP TO 
AROUND 800 HPA. 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AMONGST 00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO 
BE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE LARGER 
DIFFERENCES ARISE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT 
EAST BY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW AS LEE 
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
INCREASE TO OVER 30KTS WITH +10C 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING ON 
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY AND MILD DAY...WITH SOME 
60S POSSIBLE.  

A WEAK FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH SOME 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...AND STILL QUITE MILD TEMPS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT 
MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM 
THE WEST BY SUN/MON...AND LOTS OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. BY THE END OF 
THE PERIOD...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW DUE 
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 
GFS MAINTAINS A FLATTER FLOW WITH A STRONGER PACIFIC JET EXTENDING 
INTO THE PLAINS. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS HAD A PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 
CIGS, IF ANY, WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 9 THOUSAND FT. ANOTHER 
BAND OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MN/MAN BORDER...HOWEVER 
CLOUDS WERE BEING OBSCURED BY A HIGHER DECK OVER SOUTHERN MAN. IFR 
CONDITIONS WERE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. FGN HAD AN 18 HUNDRED FT 
CIG. VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE 
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS 
CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING. 
PATCHY CIGS AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES