736 
FXUS65 KTFX 040949
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
349 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Relatively quiet weather will continue
across southwest and central Montana this weekend and into
Monday. The region remains between an upper level ridge along the
West Coast and a deep trough over the Midwest. Northwest flow
aloft will continue to bring variable mid and high level clouds to
the forecast area but precipitation is not expected. In addition,
temperatures will remain near or above seasonal averages with
breezy westerly winds prevailing across the forecast area. Some
higher gusts are likely in favored valleys, canyons and passes
along the Rocky Mountain Front but widespread high winds are not
anticipated. mpj

Monday night through Saturday...Confidence has not increased with 
growing divergence among medium range models in recent runs as next 
week progresses. Period begins with a mean upper level ridge along 
the west coast and a stationary upper level low SW of Hudson Bay. 
Energy ejecting out of another upper low over AK east across 
northern Canada will weaken and force the upper level ridge to 
retrograde west off the west coast. This allows a weak cool front to 
slide south into north central MT as early as Mon night per the 
ECMWF/NAM/Canadian models while the GFS holds back the cooler 
airmasses advance south until Wed. This also results in a WNW to ESE 
baroclinic zone setting up across north central MT with several weak 
disturbances moving across Tues thru Thurs, potentially producing 
some light showers. Model differences amplify further Friday and 
Saturday as the GFS rebuilds the upper level ridge along the West 
Coast strongly while the ECMWF brings a strong Pacific Jet onto the 
west Coast Friday, carving out a deep/broad upper level trough that 
shifts from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains region 
Saturday. Much of this uncertainty is likely complicated by the 
eventual evolution of Typhoon Phanfone in the Western Pacific, which 
recurves and eventually becomes absorbed into an upper low south of 
the Aleutians early next week. For now have not strayed far from 
PoPs/Temps near climatological averages late next week into next 
weekend. Hoenisch 

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions will continue through at least the next 24 hours as 
high cloudiness moves over the area in a northwesterly flow aloft. 
The main impact to aviation will be increasing westerly winds, 
especially along the east slopes of the Rockies. Gusts will mostly
range between 20 and 30 kt, but closer to the Rocky Mountain
Front gusts will likely exceed 40 kt through most of the period.
Winds and cloudiness will decrease after 22Z. Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  45  65  44 /   0  10   0   0 
CTB  69  42  66  42 /   0  10  10   0 
HLN  69  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  66  38  66  38 /   0   0   0   0 
WEY  58  29  57  28 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  68  39  68  38 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  69  42  67  40 /   0  10   0   0 
LWT  67  43  63  42 /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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