National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCLE
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCLE
Product Timestamp: 2014-09-18 19:47 UTC
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321 FXUS61 KCLE 181947 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 347 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 12 UTC AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA. HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN
321 FXUS61 KCLE 181947 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 347 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 12 UTC AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON PRECIPITATION TIMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA. HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHEAST PA. PLENTY OF CUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AT A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY EAST. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OR DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER NW OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOW END VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 00Z. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SINCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS AND WILL BE FROM A DOWNSLOPING DIRECTION AT MANY TAFS SITES. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...MULLEN