191 
FXUS64 KMAF 051119
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and sfc obs show MVFR cigs and -SHRA approaching KMAF
from the SE, lending legitimacy to the 06Z NAM. Forecast
soundings suggest these cigs will scatter out to VFR by late
morning. Models differ considerable on cigs over the next 24 hours
in return flow, and we'll go w/a low, widespread VFR cu field
unless trends say otherwise. However, MVFR cigs/visibilities can
be expected in areas of convection. Otherwise, expect widespread
convection to develop by late afternoon, and taper off somewhat
after 06Z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

The area is under the western edge of an upper ridge that is over 
the southeast conus.  Currently, on radar, showers are starting move 
into the Lower Trans Pecos and portions of Eddy County. 
Precipitation is expected to continue to move and expand across the 
area today with most of the rain being across the western 2/3rds of 
the CWA. Heavy rain is possible across this area. Enhanced lift will 
move over the region for the next couple of days as indicated with 
higher omega values especially across southeast New Mexico. An 
abundant supply of moisture is across the area with dewpoints in the 
60s. PWAT values across southeast New Mexico are expected to get up 
to around 1.80 inches through Saturday.  Due to the good supply of 
moisture, heavy rain, and enhanced lift, a Flash Flood Watch has 
been issued for southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains 
from this afternoon through mid Saturday morning.  Future shifts 
will need to monitor this and may consider expanding this watch.  
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the increase in 
cloud cover and precipitation.  

An upper trough moving over the northern conus will send a cold 
front southward into the area on Saturday.  This front will create 
more lift and convergence allowing for increased chances of showers 
and thunderstorms across the northern portions of the CWA Saturday 
morning.  Rain will continue for the area through Saturday with the 
best chances being across the western and northern sections of the 
CWA where upper lift will be enhanced.  Temperatures will cool to 
around 10 degrees below normal on Saturday as the front pushes 
south.  Chances of rain will continue into Sunday but the rain will 
not be as heavy or widespread.  The best chances will likely be 
across the west.  Temperatures will warm up slightly on Sunday from 
the previous day.  The upper ridge is expected to remain over the 
southern conus through next week with upper level troughs moving 
over the northern conus.  This will serve to flatten the ridge and 
allow for slight chances of showers and thunderstorms toward the end 
of next week.  Temperatures will warm up by quite a bit on Monday as 
the precipitation moves out of the area.  The warm (above average) 
temperatures will continue through Wednesday until the next cold 
front moves into the area around Thursday of next week.  

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through Saturday 
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through Saturday 
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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