104 
FXUS61 KBGM 220600
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
835 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE AS WE ARE ACTIVELY MONITORING A BUSY RADAR THIS EVENING.

TONGUE OF INSTABILITY, MARKED BY MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, WILL
RAPIDLY RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAINLY EAST OF I-81 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE OVER AT THIS POINT.

2 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIT WAVES AT US AND KEEPS SCATTERED 
CONVECTION DVLPNG AT RANDOM TDA. AS CONVECTION HEADS EAST THIS EVNG, 
EXPECT IT TO BCM A LITTLE MORE INTENSE ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 
CORRIDOR IN AREA OF BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HWVR THRU 00Z 
EXPECT LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MLCAPES OF 
1000 J/KG HV OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH BEST 0-6KM 
SHEAR RMNG SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS MAY SEE AN ODD STRONG STORM THIS 
AFTN/EVNG BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. 

STORMS WL LKLY PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCHES PER HOUR BUT WL BE FINE IF 
THEY CAN KEEP MVG. IF STORMS CAN GET ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
OR A LURKING BNDRY, FLOODING (PONDING AND/OR FLASH) COULD BCM AN 
ISSUE. HWVR NO THREAT LOOKS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME AND WL CONTINUE TO 
MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO.

THUNDER WL BCM LESS AFT 04Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AS 
INSTABILITY WANES. VRY JUICY AIRMASS WL RMN LOCKED OVR CNY AND NEPA 
TONIGHT AND HV ADDED IN AREAS OF VLY FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG TO 
RMNDR OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
700MB WV WL SKIRT THRU THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH CHC POPS 
CWA-WIDE INTO THE AFTN, VRY SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ACRS NRN ZONES 
TWD 00Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN FM NEW 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN STABLE EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO BRING AN END TO 
PCPN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WL BE SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAY, ARND 80 IN THE 
WEST AND SOUTH WITH DWPTS RMNG UP IN THE 60S GIVING A HUMID AIRMASS 
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN. 

AS TROF DROPS THRU AND HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE EAST EXPECT PCPN TO 
WIND DOWN BY 12Z SATURDAY. WITH DIURNAL HTG ON SATURDAY EXPECT ISOLD 
SHOWERS TO POP UP THO MAY SEE MORE SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AS FINAL 
WV PUSHES THRU DRG THE AFTN. TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT RIGHT ARND NORMAL 
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF DEPICTS A TROPICAL-BASED
CYCLONE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT STAYING FAR OFF THE
COAST BEFORE RECURVING EASTWARD ONCE IT REACHES 38-39 DEGREES
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CONDITIONS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. OVERALL WIDESPREAD LOW
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT KAVP,
IFR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z THEN LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AT KELM, DENSE FOG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS THROUGH 13Z. AT KITH, CONDITIONS 
BELOW ALT MINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13Z. AT KBGM, CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-
13Z. AT KRME/KSYR, LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY WITH
IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. BY 14Z CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH
CIGS AROUND 4K FT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT
ALL TAFS FROM AROUND 18Z-00Z. THIS EVENING MVFR EXPECTED DUE TO
MIST AND LINGERING LOW CIGS.

VARIABLE WINDS 3-5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM