076 
FXUS64 KLUB 190940
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK HAS RAPIDLY FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS AT KLBB TO GO IFR SHORTLY AOA
500 FT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO MIX OUT
THE MOISTURE. VISIBILITY MAY DROP SHARPLY BUT THUS FAR INDICATIONS
POINT TO MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT THOUGH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
JUST A FEW DEGREES.  


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH 
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS 
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT 
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS. THE 
BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX 
THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW WILL 
PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE IMPORTANTLY 
THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE WEAK IN AN 
AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT 
MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF 
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP AID 
IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH SCATTERED 
DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB MAY SERVE TO 
SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT 
DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR 
PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL 
EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL 
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 
AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO 
SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS 
TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER 
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY 
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR 
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR 
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP 
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO 
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL 
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY 
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE 
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE 
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER 
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE 
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE 
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A 
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY 
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT 
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE 
WANTED WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. WHILE WE MAY 
NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS TO OUR WEST 
AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPS 
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...POSSIBLY 
JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20 
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10 
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10 
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20 
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10 
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20 
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10 
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10 
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10 
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26