630 
FXUS62 KMHX 190719
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN NE NC. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY WHILE FRONTAL SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING BURNING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PROVIDING GOOD FORCING AND LIFT. MAIN CHANGE
TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE...STILL NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO LIKELY. AT THIS TIME THINK
BEST COVERAGE WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE. PWATS EXPECTED AROUND 2 INCHES
WITH DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
PRECIP RATES WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WESTERLY
FLOW...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR TSTM STILL POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESP FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHO SAW SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY. 

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S EXPECT HEAT INDEX
VALUES 95-100 DEGREES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WED MORNING.
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
CAROLINAS...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S. STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING HOURS. N/NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WX WED INTO EARLY THU WITH LESS 
MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT. WILL CONT SMALL POPS WED AFTN FOR POSS 
ACTVT DURING MAX HEATING. ALSO KEPT SMALL POP IN LATE WED NIGHT AND 
EARLY THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHRT WAVE. MDLS SHOWING BETTER NE 
FLOW WED AND THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS WITH MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND. 
LATER THU AND THU NIGHT EXPECT INCREASED CHCS OF SHRA AND TSRA AS 
STRONGER SHORT WAVE CROSSES TO THE N. COULD SEE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX 
CROSS THU NIGHT NRN TIER PER NAM/ECMWF BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO 
INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC. THU SHLD BE RATHER WARM WITH PLENTY OF SUN 
EARLY...HIGHS 90 TO 95 INLAND. MDLS CONT TO DIFFER ON HOW FAST FRONT 
WILL CROSS WITH 12Z ECMWF FASTEST SHOWING N FLOW ALL AREAS BY FRI 
MORN...GFS/NAM A BIT SLOWER AND LEANED MORE TWRD THIS 
SOLUTION...QUICK GLANCE OF 00Z ECMWF ALSO SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO 
GFS/NAM. STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA FOR CONT SCT SHRA 
AND TSRA. TEMPS A BIT COOLER WITH DEVELOPING NNE FLOW WITH HIGHS 
MAINLY MID/UPR 80S. 

FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT MDLS CONT TO SHOW DEEP 
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION SO CONT CHC POPS HIGHEST SW TIER. NO 
CHANGES FOR SUN AND MON WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES 
EXTENDS S INTO THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO 
MID 80S SAT THRU MON WITH NE FLOW. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN SATURATED GROUND...AND THINK BEST
POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS WILL BE PGV/ISO. SCT CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AGAIN POSSIBLE. 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH JUST ISOLD 
CONVECTION EXPECTED...MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR ST EARLY THU. 
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS SHRT 
WAVE CROSSES TO THE N THU NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING FRI AND 
STALLING TO THE S SAT. WILL HAVE A FEW PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT 
CATEGORIES AS SHRA/TSRA CROSS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION MAINLY VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW PRED SW/W WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
2-4FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-5FT SOUTH. SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NE
NC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN VA SINKS SOUTHWARD. SW FLOW GENERALLY 15KT OR LESS
CONTINUES TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4FT UP TO 5FT ON THE OUTER SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM N TO S...NLY FLOW LESS THAN 15KT
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE S WED WITH MAINLY N/NE 
WINDS WED AT 5 TO 15 KTS...HIGHEST N. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE LATER WED NIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING S 10 TO 15 KTS 
LATE THU. S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF THU NIGHT WILL GRAD 
SHIFT TO N/NE FROM N TO S FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES S THRU THE 
WTRS. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM FROM THE N WILL LEAD TO NE WINDS 10 
TO 15 KTS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...POSS GUSTING TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN 
WTRS.  SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT THRU FRI...THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT OUTER 
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF