664 
FXUS63 KEAX 110847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night) 
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

Early morning 11-3.9u satellite imagery showing plenty of low clouds
and fog across the region as abundant low-level moisture remains in
place following yesterday/s rainfall. Many sites reporting visibility
restrictions this morning as winds have gone mostly calm in advance
of a cold front that will swing through the area later today.
Conditions should improve quite rapidly after sunrise as the diurnal
heating cycle commences.

Expanding out...well-established northwest flow prevailing overhead
this morning as ridging continues to take form across the Rockies and
Great Basin. Closer to home...water vapor showing an easily
identifiable shortwave across the central Plains with latest surface
analysis placing an accompanying cold front stretched from southeast
Nebraska through the Twin Cities region of southern Minnesota. As
shortwave energy continues to drive southeast today...front will
slide southeast across the region beginning late this morning before
clearing the entire fcst region by mid afternoon. As was highlighted
in recent forecast updates...fcst models continue to show developing
convection along the boundary as daytime heating combined with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s allows for weak instability
development in the prefrontal airmass. For what its worth...overall
forcing for ascent should be rather limited as best shortwave energy
slides from southern Minnesota into northern Illinois during the
afternoon...and much of the lwr Missouri Vly remains positioned under
the wrong quadrants of two separate upper jet streaks aloft. High
resolution models do show developing isolated cells along the
boundary later today which warrants little more than a slgt chc
mention with this morning/s package due to the above reasons.
Fortunately...weak winds aloft will negate any severe potential for
any activity that does develop later today. Outside of precip
chances...temps to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s expected across the far north...with low 80s along/south of I-70.
Following fropa...would not be surprised to see falling temps across
the far northwest zones as cooler/drier air quickly funnels into the
region.

Well advertised cool down to get underway tonight as high pressure
builds south from the northern Plains/upper Miss Rvr Vly. The
combination of nearly clear skies aloft along with dewpoints in the
lower to mid 50s should allow for a very comfortable night with
overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

From this point forward...main item of interest remains below normal
temps through at least midweek as high pressure remains parked across
the mid Miss Rvr Vly. Continued subsidence aloft along with very dry
conditions will ensure mostly clear skies through much of the
upcoming week with temps well below normal for this time of year. In
fact...850 temps by Tuesday will range from 11-13C across the
area which should yield high temps in the middle to upper 70s...if
we/re lucky! Statistical guidance continues to struggle as departures
are quite a bit below the climatological norm for mid August.
Wednesday morning looks to be the coolest morning of all with high
pressure directly over the area. From this vantage point...overnight
lows early Wednesday will likely fall into the lower to middle 50s
which is anywhere between 8-12 degrees below normal. In any
event...temps will begin to moderate during the day on Wednesday as
high pressure slides to the east and heights begin building aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) 
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

The upper pattern will remain highly 
amplified, with a trough over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast, 
leaving an upper ridge axis over the High Plains. This pattern will 
change little during the end of the work week, with weak northwest 
flow continuing over the forecast area. By Thursday night into 
Friday, weak warm air advection and a subtle upper disturbance may 
yield thunderstorms across the area, with initially the highest 
probabilities over northwest Missouri. Operational models depict a 
notable shortwave trough to emerge over the Central Plains on Friday 
and slowly move east-southeast into the Ozarks on Sunday. With 
increasing ascent and strengthening H85 wind fields in a moist and 
unstable environment, several rounds of thunderstorms are expected 
Saturday into Sunday for many sections of the forecast area. Model 
spread exists with the position/speed of the upper feature and with 
uncertainty in the convective evolution, it remains too early to 
delve into specifics other than noting an increased probability of 
thunderstorms is expected beginning Thursday night with periodic 
episodes of convection through the weekend. Temperatures in the 
extended forecast will remain slightly below normal levels with 
maximum readings in the lower to middle 80s. 

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) 
Issued at 1241 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

Combination of abundant low-level moisture and mostly clear skies
will lead to VSBY restrictions at area terminals early this morning.
IFR thresholds will likely be reached at both STJ and MCI...with
conditions potentially falling below airport mins at STJ between
8-12z. Early morning fog will quickly burn off after sunrise with
winds picking up from the northwest between 10-15 kts through the 
afternoon. Clear skies and calming winds will return after 00z as
high pressure begins building into the area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...32