108 
FXUS63 KFSD 201732
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA YESTERDAY 
PUT A DAMPER ON EXPECTED WARMING. MODELS SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY BENEATH THE 
INVERSION...THOUGH NOT VERY DEEP ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EXPECT WE 
WILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT DO NOT 
ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AND THUS LOWER 
TO MID 80S SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE FOR HIGHS NEAR/EAST OF I-29. AREAS 
ALONG/WEST OF THE JAMES SEE MORE NOTABLE LOW LEVEL WARMING AND WILL 
STICK WITH IDEA OF LOWER-MID 90S FOR HIGHS IN THIS AREA. THIS NEAR 
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES LOWER. WITH FORECAST DEW POINTS IN 
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...LOCATIONS IN OUR WEST DO BRUSH TRIPLE 
DIGIT HEAT INDICES FOR 2-3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH SMOKE 
LAYER ALOFT STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THIS COULD HOLD 
TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM FULL MIXING POTENTIAL...AND THUS HAVE OPTED TO 
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEAT ADVISORY IN OUR WEST AT THIS TIME. WILL BE 
SOMETHING FOR DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR THOUGH.

OTHER QUESTION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS WHETHER BOUNDARY 
WILL SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO BRUSH OUR 
NORTHWEST CWA. MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA...WITH STRONG CAP KEEPING OUR AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER 
HI-RES ARW AND RAP/HRRR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE BOUNDARY 
FARTHER SOUTH AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY 
EVENING. SIDING WITH THE NORTHERN/DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN 
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OF MONDAY...ALONG WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD 
ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE A
RAPID SHIFT FROM SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS OF THE PAST WEEK TO A
BRIEF STINT OF DANGEROUS HEAT. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE INCREASED
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAW MODEL DEW POINTS NEAR 80F...BY TAKING
ACCOUNT OF SLIGHT DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...SHOULD STILL
RESULT IN DEW POINT VALUES 74-78 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...H850
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +30C SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AROUND
THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29...WITH READINGS
PUSHING 100 DEGREES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

GIVEN THE RECENT COOL SPELL...THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAT 
THIS SUMMER SEASON...AND THE DEGREE OF HUMIDITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT 
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM A SHORT DURATION SPELL 
OF HEAT COULD BE AMPLIFIED. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT 
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY AND AHEAD OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

REGARDING CONVECTION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG SIGNALS CONTINUE 
TO PERSIST THAT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL FORM EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON 
ACROSS NERN SD AND SOUTHERN ND AS LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE REACHES THE REGION.  THE MAJORITY OF THIS 
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE 
CONCERNS HOWEVER WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL THAT ONCE A WELL DEFINED 
COLD POOL FORMS...SEVERAL OF THESE CLUSTERS COULD BEGIN TO TAKE A 
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.  CORFIDI VECTORS BY 
03Z SHOW INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD BRING 
THE TAIL-END OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE 
CWA.  THE PRIMARY RISKS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND 
THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD FROM BRITISH 
COLUMBIA.  THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG AND FURTHER SOUTH OUTLIER THAN 
THE EC/GEM...AND THUS WILL NOT GO QUITE AS BULLISH WITH POPS ON 
THUR/FRI...BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU AGAIN OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKELY
THAT KFSD WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. KSUX REMAINS RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATOCU. AS MIXING CONTINUES WE MAY SEE THE CLOUD COVER
EXPAND SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST...THUS KSUX WILL PROBABLY END UP
SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 2500 FEET. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.
HOWEVER SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT LOW STRATUS WILL FORM OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...THUS ADDED THIS INTO ALL THREE TAFS.
THIS STATUS MAY INITIALLY BE IFR...WITH A SLOW INCREASE INTO THE MVFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY VERY
WELL LINGER INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-
     052>071.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD