643 
FXUS63 KEAX 132033
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

The surface boundary that brought last night's and this morning's 
precipitation has made slow progress today, and sits nearly 
stationary across central Missouri, running from KCNU to KCOU. A few 
storms have begun to pop up along that boundary in the far southern 
part of the forecast area, where low level convergence is maximized. 
Lapse rates in the vicinity of the boundary are not very impressive, 
which should mitigate any robust deep convection. Likewise with the 
0-6 km shear vectors being at or below 30 kts parameters don't look 
well in place for organized storm activity. As we move through the 
evening and overnight hours the boundary should continue to slowly 
slip to the south, dragging the best chances of precipitation along 
with it. 

The focus then shifts to the next feature, which is expected to come 
through the area for Monday. Currently sitting across northern 
Nebraska, up into the northern plains sits a relatively cool/dry 
airmass, which is expected to make its way into the area by Monday. 
Along the leading edge of this air mass, and aided by some mid level 
ascent associated with the large upper wave just to the NE of the 
forecast area, a few showers will form and slide SSE through the 
area. These showers look to be rather progressive and shouldn't 
bring much in the way of precip accumulation, but most of the area 
could at least see a period of rain on Monday. As the surface ridge 
responsible for the cool/dry air mass settles into the area it will 
bring a fairly significant pattern change to the area, as seasonally 
cool temperatures settle in for the middle part of the work week. 
Daytime highs on Tuesday through Thursday will likely reside in the 
70s, with overnight lows likely dropping into the 50s. While the 
temperatures may not be THAT chilly, the dryness of the air may 
cause it to feel a bit nippy in the mornings this work week. 

Temperatures will eventually rebound back to seasonal normals by the 
late part of the week, as the surface ridge slides to the east and 
return flow picks up. A couple of features look interesting in the 
extended. The first features that looks a bit out of place for this 
time of year is a shortwave mid level trough, which looks to carve 
into the NW flow and dig through the southern plains, bringing a 
chance for rain to areas south of the forecast area. Should this 
feature pan out a little farther north it could affect the southern 
portions of the forecast area with some rain. The best chance for 
widespread rain will come this weekend as another trough with a 
better trajectory to bring rain to the area will move through and 
drag another cold front with it.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Going VFR for the rest of the forecast period. Winds will be sort of 
variable through the overnight hours with one or more surface features
affecting the surface wind pattern. Could see several hours of
shifting wind directions, but wind speeds generally expected to be
at or below 5 kts. Hinting at some approaching showers about 16z to
17z tomorrow. Timing could be a little aggressive with 17z, but
figured it would be fine to hint at it with a VCSH group.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton