255 
FXUS63 KEAX 041737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014

Our nice and pleasant July weather will soon be coming to an end as 
high pressure moves east out of Missouri and a 500 mb ridge settles
into the Plains. This will bring warmer temperatures to the region
while keeping the area in northwest flow with possibilities
for thunderstorms over the next couple days. An upper level shortwave
is expected to drop into the area late tonight with an area of
thunderstorms spreading into the Middle Missouri Valley after
midnight tonight into early Saturday morning. Models aren't in
agreement with the exact location of the heaviest precipitation with
the NAM and SREF bringing precipitation as far south as Kansas City
early Saturday while the ECMWF and GFS keep heaviest precip along and
north the MO/IA border. While the placement of the low level jet is
likely to focus most precipitation to the north of the area, the
presence of about 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should allow for at least
scattered convection further south as the upper shortwave approaches
early Saturday. Therefore the forecast was trended closer to the NAM
solution with chance PoPs as far south as I-70 Saturday morning.

With high pressure sliding to the east today, increasing southerly
flow will bring temperatures into the lower 80s across the region.
Saturday should see temperatures warming even further, but some
locations along the MO/IA border may see highs in the upper 70s if
clouds and precipitation stick around into the early afternoon. By
Sunday a surge of 20C+ air at 850 hPa could bring some areas their
warmest temps of the year so far with highs possibly reaching the
middle 90s near the KS/MO border. Dewpoints in the lower 70s may
bring these areas close to heat advisory criteria with heat indices
approaching 105. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014

A breakdown of the upper ridging over the Plains early next week will
allow a cold front to drop into the forecast area late Monday.
Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front should allow for at
least scattered thunderstorms late Monday afternoon, becoming more
organized Monday night into early Tuesday as upper-level wind fields
increase and a low-level jet noses into the region. Thunderstorm
chances will likely continue into Tuesday and Tuesday night with the
front slow to move out of the area. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
suggest the front will slowly settle south of the forecast area by
late Wednesday and Thursday shifting the focus for thunderstorms into
the Ozarks by that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2014

VFR conditions through this evening with southeast winds under 10kts.
Favor GFS/SREF with main convection affecting mainly northern MO
Saturday morning. Believe 12z NAM is too far south with convection
although can't rule out isolated storms reaching as far south as
I-70. So, higher rain probabilities placed in KSTJ terminal. Expect
winds to increase and veer to the south by mid morning as pressure
gradient tightens.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel/Hendel
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ