147 
FXUS63 KICT 300002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

INCREDIBLY HUMID WEATHER HAS GRIPPED KICT COUNTRY TODAY AS SOUTH
10 TO 20 MPH WINDS CONTINUE ADVECTING 70-75F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD. FORTUNATELY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS 80-85F...OTHERWISE WE
WOULD REALLY HAVE A NASTY SITUATION. UPSTAIRS...AN INTENSE CYCLONE
HAS SET UP CAMP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED THE
PAST 4 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL & VERY HEAVY RAINS
STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE MON AFTERNOON & CONTINUE THROUGH
MON NIGHT. 2) FLOODING POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PRIMARILY
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS FROM MON NIGHT TO TUE MORNING.

TONIGHT:
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CYCLONE SPINNING LIKE A TOP OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WILL EJECT A "PRELIMINARY" MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE E ACROSS
KS LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE ULTRA-HIGH OCTANE FUEL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IA & NORTHERN MO
WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SURFACE TROFFING WOULD BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WOULD INDUCE 850-MB
THETA-E ADVECTION TO INCREASE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST
KS. HAVE STRETCHED & SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO ~30-35% FROM KSLN-
KCNU FOR THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NE OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SPREAD SE ACROSS EASTERN KS.

MON-TUE NIGHT: THESE REMAIN THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST. WITH THE INTENSE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO MOVE E/SE FROM
MANITOBA TO THE ONTARIO/MN BORDER A COUPLE OF MUCH MORE ROBUST
MID-UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL SPRINT SE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD SEND A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SE ACROSS
NORTH & NORTHEAST KS MON AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS MON EVENING INTO A MOIST &
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE 850-750MB CAP IS STRONG...BUT WITH
THE SE-MOVING FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IT SHOULD
BREAK. THE CAPES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH (MLCAPES ARE 4500-5500 J/KG
WHILE MUCAPES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH AROUND A HIDEOUS 6,000 J/KG
PER BOTH THE GFS & NAM). THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-6KM BULK VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 35 & 45KTS OVER MOST OF
KICT COUNTRY MON AFTERNOON. AS SUCH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER & 70 MPH WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY MON EVENING.

TUE & TUE NIGHT:
AS THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED CYCLONE TRANSITIONS INTO A PRONOUNCED
WAVE A STRONG POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROF WILL SURGE SE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH CHARACTER EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES TUE EVENING. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL THE SE-
MOVING COLD FRONT WOULD DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK
BORDER EARLY TUE MORNING. WITH MORE-THAN-AMPLE FUEL (SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ~70F WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ~1.70-1.85 INCHES)
STRETCHED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER & 15-20KT WESTERLY FLOW
PARALLELING THE FRONT...VERY HEAVY RAINS WOULD BECOME A MAJOR
CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES WERE TO BE ISSUED FOR LATE MON NIGHT & TUE MORNING.
THE APPROACHING UPPER-DECK TROF SHOULD THEN KICK THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE RED RIVER TUE EVENING THUS ENDING THE VERY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.

WED & WED NIGHT:
ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EXTREME
SOUTHERN KS WED MORNING WHEN THE UPPER-DECK TROF CROSSES THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ALL SHOULD CALM DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
OF ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS MOVES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED THEN
BROADENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THU &
THU NIGHT COVERING NEARLY ALL OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE OVER SOUTHEAST KS...IN A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 700-500MB
TROUGH/REMNANT MCV. HOWEVER...SUSPECT GREATEST CHANCES WILL
RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST KS...IN ZONE OF BETTER 700MB WARM ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE
MAY RESULT IN A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. BREEZY/WINDS SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH...REACHING THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  96  67  82 /  20  30  70  40 
HUTCHINSON      73  98  66  82 /  20  30  70  40 
NEWTON          72  96  65  82 /  20  30  80  40 
ELDORADO        72  93  66  81 /  20  30  80  40 
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  94  68  82 /  10  20  60  40 
RUSSELL         71  92  62  82 /  20  10  50  30 
GREAT BEND      72  94  62  81 /  20  10  60  30 
SALINA          74  95  64  83 /  30  20  60  30 
MCPHERSON       72  96  65  82 /  20  30  60  30 
COFFEYVILLE     74  91  70  84 /  20  10  50  40 
CHANUTE         73  91  68  82 /  40  30  70  40 
IOLA            73  91  68  82 /  40  40  80  40 
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  83 /  30  20  60  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$