378 
FXUS64 KCRP 282041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SHEAR AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SKIRTING THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT...WITH PW VALUES FALLING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN EVEN
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ANTICIPATE A VERY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE 70S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. 

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FEET
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRIER AIR FROM H9 
AND ABOVE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IN TURN...H9 TO H7 TEMPS WARM BY 
SEVERAL DEGREES C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 90S 
ACROSS THE EAST TO AROUND 100 ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. FORECAST 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THE WORKWEEK AS AMOUNT OF DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS VARYING FROM GUIDANCE RUN TO 
RUN...AND WILL PARTIALLY BE DEPENDENT ON POSITIONING OF H85 HIGH 
CENTER...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF 
SURFACE LOW OFF EAST OF FL. FEEL THAT AT LEAST ENOUGH DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY THURS/FRI THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH 
SLIGHT COOLING IN H85 TO H7 LAYER...ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD 
DEVELOP. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED 20 POPS FOR LATE IN THE 
WEEK. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER BY LATE IN THE 
WEEK GIVEN SLIGHT COOLING OF LLVL TEMPS. SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL LLJ 
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD AID IN KEEPING MIN TEMPS ABOVE 
SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS EXPECTED BY LATE 
IN THE WEEK DUE TO LIGHTER LLVL WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  94  77  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          78  93  77  94  77  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO            80 102  79 103  80  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ALICE             78  96  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          82  91  80  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA           77 100  76 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        80  96  78  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  79  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT 
     O'CONNOR.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM