National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCRP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP
Product Timestamp: 2014-06-24 23:51 UTC
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978 FXUS64 KCRP 242351 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 651 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...ANTICIPATE ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING WHICH MAY DIMINISH BEFORE 03Z WED. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST 10-14Z WED THEN PSBLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DRG THE AFTN WED. GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN WED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ONGOING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FARTHER N AND W THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONT THIS TREND INTO THE EVENING HRS. 500MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE OVER THE HGX CWA AND ANOTHER ONE EXTENDING FROM E OF DRT TO SRN TX PANHANDLE. MODELS PROG A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TO MOVE/DVLP ACROSS TX WITH THE AXIS ORIENTED N-S AND BISECTING THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND CWA INTO THE EVENING WITH BETTER CHCS SHIFTING FARTHER NW. A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH REDVLPMNT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND E CWA TOWARD WED MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGD TO MEANDER ACROSS S TX THROUGH WED WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA'S ON WED. MAIN LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE THE SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BDRIES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WHERE THERE ARE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...BUT NO SVR WX IS ANTICIPATED. HVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN MODERATE THUS NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCAL PONDING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WED'S MX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH VRB GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA'S. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES) INTERACTS WITH AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE AND A MIDLVL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS. WL THUS MAINTAIN CHC/GOOD CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. A SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY AS THE MIDLVL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EWD AND TRANSPORTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EWD. WL INDICATE A 10-20% LOWERING OF POPS ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT. A SLOW DRYING PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MARGINAL PWATS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LATE MORNING/AFTN CONVECTION FOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS. OVERALL KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 78 91 79 92 79 / 30 60 30 50 20 VICTORIA 77 89 77 90 77 / 30 60 30 50 20 LAREDO 79 97 80 97 80 / 30 30 20 20 20 ALICE 77 91 77 93 77 / 20 60 20 50 20 ROCKPORT 79 90 81 91 81 / 30 60 40 50 30 COTULLA 76 95 77 96 77 / 30 30 20 20 20 KINGSVILLE 77 91 79 93 79 / 20 60 30 50 20 NAVY CORPUS 80 89 82 91 82 / 40 60 40 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...AVIATION