069 
FXUS64 KCRP 241427
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
927 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A 2 INCH PWAT. CURRENTLY THE CWA IS IN
BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE NEAR THE DRT AREA IS
PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS S TX TODAY. ONGOING ISOLD SHRA'S THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BECOMING SCT WITH A FEW TSRA'S AS THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE NEARS THE CWA. MAIN LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE THE
SEA BREEZE...BUT ANY OUTFLOW BDRIES COULD ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION.
NO SVR WX IS ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH ANY INTERACTING BDRIES. WITH THE WET BULB NEAR 14KFT...HAIL
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH AND HVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL...FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VSBYS. CEILINGS AGAIN HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH LOW CLOUD/FOG IAMGE SHOWING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE COAST. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS
FORMING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS COULD PROVIDE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT VFR CONDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWED MVFR CIGS FORMING AGAIN BY 08Z FOR THE COASTAL
SITES WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH CIGS REACHING THE LRD
AREA BY 10Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING
INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER
THE COASTAL BEND WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
FOR 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THE BEST AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR STORMS SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
MAV/GFS POPS TODAY. GFS/ECMWF/SREF MODELS SHOW AN INFLUX OF DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INLAND
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THRU
THE DAY. WILL SHOW HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION..LIKELY...IN THE VICTORIA AREA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE 
FOR EXTENDED PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS 
IS PROG TO BE DRAPED ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE S TX COAST AT THE 
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT 
WESTWARD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY BE ALONG 
THE RIO GRANDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO 
PROG TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH PWAT 
VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO 1.8 TO AROUND 2 
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AXIS...DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE VALUES...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY DAILY 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 
BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST 
SHOULD BE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH CHANCES 
SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN 
CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND 
AS DRIER AIR IN THE H9 TO H7 LAYER ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR 
MIDWEEK...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP 
MOISTURE VALUES AND ANY MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO CONVECTION. 
FORECAST MAX TEMPS REFLECT SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE 
LEVELS AND WILL BE INFLUENCED ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA 
EACH AFTERNOON. FORECAST MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR 
LATE JUNE GIVEN EXPECTED NIGHTLY DEVELOPMENT OF SOMEWHAT 
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  77  91  78  92  /  30  30  50  30  50 
VICTORIA          93  75  91  77  91  /  40  30  60  30  50 
LAREDO            98  79  99  79  98  /  30  20  30  20  20 
ALICE             95  76  93  76  95  /  40  20  50  20  50 
ROCKPORT          91  79  90  80  91  /  30  30  50  40  50 
COTULLA           97  76  96  77  97  /  30  20  30  20  20 
KINGSVILLE        95  76  92  78  94  /  30  20  50  30  50 
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  89  80  91  /  30  40  50  40  50 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM