377 
FXUS64 KCRP 231417
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
917 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRAPED SW TO NE ALONG THE TX
COAST...CONTS TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE WITH MUCH OF S TX IN A NLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE/PWATS OF 2 INCHES IS ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
WITH SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESIDES ACROSS S TX FOR AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DVLPS AND
MOVES INLAND. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IS NVA MOVG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH. ALSO THE 700MB TEMPS ARE VERY WARM WHICH WILL HINDER
CONVECTION. DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN
CWA...MX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SCA CRITERIA. BUT
DECREASING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO
EXPIRE AT 12Z. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

AVIATION...KCRP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK RETURNS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE COAST. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COVERS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE NOT FORMED
AS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. THEN VFR CONDS ARE EXPECT FOR THE AREA 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE 
DAY BUT DOES NOT WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP FOR THE COASTAL SITES BY 08-09Z TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL BEND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. KCRP RADAR CONTINUES TO 
SHOW VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE 00Z
NAM...INDICATE MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. THE 70H TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 10 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GOES SOUNDER SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES AND
THE 03Z SREF SHOWS PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES STILL OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SREF/ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STREAMER SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE MODELS
ARE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER ON TUESDAY AS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
MOVES TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY. WILL RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO 30-40
PERCENT OVER THE REGION...LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WHICH WAS SHOWING
50-60 PERCENT. LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CONVECTION COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS TO TRANSFORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX WHICH COULD BE SLOWER TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND THEREBY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE GULF 
WATERS UNTIL 12Z AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY. BUT EXPECT
WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO SCEC RANGE AND REMAIN THERE THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SCA CONDS DEVELOPING FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED 
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. MID 
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS PROG TO BE DRAPED FROM N TO S OVER THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF 
SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS AXIS PROG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 
SURGES OF DEEP MOISTURE ARE ALSO PROG TO OCCUR WITH PWATS RANGING 
FROM AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 
COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...SAID SHEAR AXIS...AND SLIGHT 
COOLING OF H9 TO H6 LAYER TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES 
AND MARINE AREAS LATE NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES THEN 
SHIFTING INLAND AND TOWARDS THE BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE LATE 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE 
AT TIMES GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ANY FLUCTUATION IN 
POSITIONING OF SHEAR AXIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON POP FORECAST. 
MAX TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT 
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...BUT OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH NEAR 
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR MAX TEMPS AND ABOVE SEASONABLE 
LEVELS FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  78  91  77  92  /  20  20  40  30  50 
VICTORIA          93  76  91  75  89  /  20  10  40  20  60 
LAREDO            97  79  96  78  95  /  20  10  30  20  30 
ALICE             95  76  93  76  92  /  20  10  40  20  50 
ROCKPORT          90  79  88  79  90  /  20  20  40  40  50 
COTULLA           96  76  94  76  95  /  20  10  30  20  40 
KINGSVILLE        94  78  92  76  92  /  20  20  40  20  50 
NAVY CORPUS       90  80  89  80  90  /  20  20  40  40  50 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM