920 
FXUS63 KAPX 212300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON
BAY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS 
WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES.  MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: CURRENT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS 
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN... 
1011MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM IT...ONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN 
ILLINOIS THEN TURNS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E 
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THIS FRONT...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING 
ALONG THE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE THETA-E AXIS HAS ALLOWED 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLIP INTO NORTHWEST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  
PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO 
WEST PER GOES SOUNDER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS...AND 
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER 
NORTHEAST LOWER.  FAIR BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN 
AT MID AFTERNOON...STILL SUNSHINE HANGING ON ALONG THE LAKE HURON 
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  FARTHER UPSTREAM...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND 
RADAR LOOPS SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER OVER FAR 
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THAT IS TRACKING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE 
EAST...WITH A RAIN SHIELD AROUND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THIS 
FEATURE.

WHILE OVERALL FEATURES ARE PRETTY WEAK...UPSTREAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS 
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 
SOME WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING.  CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY 
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING 
THE EVENING HOURS.  

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF 
NUISANCE SHOWERS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE...AND 
ALONG NORTHERN FRINGES OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING 
MCV.  

TONIGHT: STILL SEEING SOME MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWERS POPPING UP ON 
RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME...AND SUSPECT THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE FOR 
MUCH OF THIS GIVEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT FORCING 
AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  MCV WILL PROBABLY TRACK JUST FAR 
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...MAYBE JUST CLIPPING GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES.  SKIES 
PROBABLY WILL BE ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN 
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...THE FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HAPPY FIRST DAY OF SUMMER EVERYONE. DID NOT THINK IT WOULD EVER GET 
HERE AFTER THAT LONG BRUTAL WINTER BUT IT FINALLY DID. THE PATTERN 
LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A BUILDING 
RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ENDING 
WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT 
A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND THEN IT LOOKS UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE NEW 
WORK WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE 
REGION. ZONAL FLOW AND A POSSIBLE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL THEN LEAD 
TO MORE CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEK ENDING WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS 
ALOFT BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE 
AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WITH AN INVERTED 
SURFACE TROUGH. MOISTURE IS NOT THE BEST BUT NOT HORRIBLE (MEAN 
1000-500 MB RH 50 TO 60 PERCENT). WILL NOT ADD IN POPS BUT CAN NOT 
RULE OUT A FEW INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR STORMS POPPING UP IN 
THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY INLAND). HIGHS IN THE WARMER MIDDLE 70S TO 
LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS 
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST SHOT OF THIS WILL BE LATER 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. 
TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40 KNOTS 
OR SO...SO GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. VERY WARM MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING 
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S. COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. LOWS 
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO START...WITH 
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE 
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEARBY AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. 
SO WITH THIS PATTERN WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A BRIEF DRY 
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (PERHAPS EVEN INTO THURSDAY) 
THEN LOW POPS FOR INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LATER IN THE PERIOD 
(PLUS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE POSSIBLE NEARBY BOUNDARY). HIGHS IN THE 
COOLER MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING BY A FEW 
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. LOWS IN 
THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MAINLY THE 50S TO 
LOWER 60S THEREAFTER. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

MOST NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AROUND MBL LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES EAST INTO THAT REGION OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

WEAK GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND EXPECTED MONDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB