596 
FXUS62 KILM 200729
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY COULD BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EAST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN SLAMMED 
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA 
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ESTIMATED BY RADAR TO BE AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES 
JUST WEST OF LUMBERTON. THE LUMBERTON AIRPORT ITSELF PICKED UP A 
QUICK 0.77 INCHES...JUST A BIT UNDER THE RADAR ESTIMATE FOR THAT 
LOCATION. THE LAST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW 
PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MOREHEAD CITY AND CAPE LOOKOUT. 
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING FOR MOST OF 
OUR FORECAST AREA.

A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MAKE 
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS BENNETTSVILLE...LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN BY 
LATE MORNING BEFORE STALLING. THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION 
PLUS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BOTH ACT 
TO LIFT THE FRONT NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 
THIS FRONT...THE SEABREEZE...PLUS ANY SURVIVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS 
MIXED-LAYER CAPE RISES TO 1500-2000 J/KG. 

CELL MOTION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...ONLY 5-8 
KNOTS ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING BUT WILL ALSO ACT TO REDUCE THE 
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS FEWER AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY EACH 
CELL. WITH VIRTUALLY NO BULK SHEAR TODAY I ANTICIPATE SINGLE-CELL 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT. FORECAST POPS RANGE 
FROM 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST NORTH OF WILMINGTON AND LOWEST IN THE 
FLORENCE-KINGSTREE AREA.

AS I HAVE NOTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS GFS AND NAM MOS HIGHS 
CONTINUE TO BE RIDICULOUSLY COOL COMPARED TO VERIFYING 
OBSERVATIONS. BIAS STATISTICS FOR THE PAST FIVE DAYS SHOW GFS MOS IS 
RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TOO COOL AT FLORENCE...WITH THE NAM MOS 
NOT PERFORMING TOO MUCH BETTER. MY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM 
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION INTO LUMBERTON...WITH LOWER 
90S FOR WILMINGTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND WHITEVILLE. WITH THE 
SEABREEZE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS 
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE PROXIMITY OF 
THE SURFACE FRONT AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF SEVERAL WEAK UPPER 
DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S AT THE 
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...POPS CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 
WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND 
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY IN THE PICTURE. 

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEY ON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING WITH A MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE 
LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PERSISTENCE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS FEATURE THE 
PAST FEW CYCLES GIVES MORE CREDENCE. THEREFORE I HAVE THE HIGHEST 
POPS FOR THIS TIME...GOOD CHANCE VALUES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PERIOD...MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED DRIVEN MORESO BY 
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL FEATURES. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED 
WITH THE WEAK SHEAR BUT WITH DEEP CONVECTION...IT CANNOT BE RULED 
OUT. THE FRONT IN AN EAST WEST CONFIGURATION AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL 
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AS WELL. 

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...STILL GOTTA GO WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT 
LOWS FOR TEMPERATURES...QUITE A BIT ACTUALLY AND NEAR MODEL 
CONSENSUS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. VALUES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 
CONVECTION THAN RECENT DAYS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ONLY A QUICK TIME STAMP UPDATE FOR THE EXTENDED THIS 
MORNING BUT CHANGES WOULD BE MINIMAL ANYWAY. MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL 
CONSIST OF RESPECTABLE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVING EAST WITH 
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH 
HOWEVER TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL IT WILL ACT AS 
A CATALYST FOR CONVECTION NONETHELESS. I HAVE A MINIMUM IN POPS FOR 
MID WEEK INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE 
FORECAST. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ACROSS INTERIOR SE 
NORTH CAROLINA HAS STABILIZED THINGS AT LEAST IN THE VERY NEAR-TERM. 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR GOLDSBORO NC (KGSB) IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE WILMINGTON (KILM) AIRPORT BUT IT 
MAY GET CLOSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE APPROACH OF A 
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE BY SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS 
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE LBT/FLO/ILM AREA 
AROUND DAYBREAK. 

WITH STRONG SUNSHINE EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN 
DEVELOP. THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING 
MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS...AND I HAVE CONTINUED THE 
FORECAST OF VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z FRIDAY. WEST WINDS IN THE 
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND 
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AT KCRE/KMYR BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY 
AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF 
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN 
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL NOT QUITE 
MAKE IT DOWN AS FAR AS CAPE FEAR...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD 
CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND THE WATERS OFF THE 
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WINDS 
COULD TURN NORTHWESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE 
SEABREEZE KNOCKS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN. A LARGE CLUSTER 
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOREHEAD CITY AND CAPE LOOKOUT AT THE TIME OF 
THIS WRITING COULD PRODUCE A COLD FRONT-LIKE GUST OF NORTH WINDS AS 
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK...AGAIN FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.

THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON... 
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE BEACHES WITH 
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS...HIGHEST 
NEAR WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND SPREADING TO MOST AREAS 
TONIGHT IN A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET 
SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WIND SHIFT 
FROM THE STANDARD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING (SUMMERTIME 
PATTERN) TO NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A MCS SHOULD HELP PUSH THIS 
FRONT ACROSS AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH EACH SUCCESSFUL RUN. 
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE SAME GOES 
FOR SATURDAY WITH THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 
WILL BE 2-3 FEET. 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS 
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION 
TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY PM AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BRIEF 
INTERRUPTION IN FETCH WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT 
DEVELOPING IN THE SPECTRUM AND EXPECT 2-3 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. 

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA/BJR