National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMAF
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF
Product Timestamp: 2014-06-18 17:18 UTC
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188 FXUS64 KMAF 181718 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1218 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Surface trough along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico border will strengthen this afternoon and spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region. Confidence was high enough to include a TEMPO group from late this afternoon through early this evening for MVFR conditions in thunderstorms at KINK, KFST, KPEQ and KHOB. Winds will generally be south this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph and gusty at times. Winds this evening will be generally south to southeast at 10 to 25 mph and gusty and diminishing some after midnight. There is some chance for MVFR ceilings to develop at KMAF late tonight and early Thursday morning but confidence was not high enough at this time to mention. 12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014/ DISCUSSION... See 12Z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... MVFR CIGs are developing southeast of MAF, but should remain to the south and east so VFR conditions should hold at all TAF sites. Overnight SHRA and TS has dissipated this morning with a return expected near 21Z. Some storms may be severe with large hail and strong gusty winds the main concern. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014/ DISCUSSION... Southwest flow aloft will continue today with afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected as weak upper level disturbances traverse the region. Much like yesterday, the dryline won't make much progress today (maybe just east of the Pecos River) providing a surface focus for convective development this afternoon. Strong southeast flow east of the dryline will provide ample gulf moisture to much of the FA with dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. In addition to sufficient moisture and lift (aloft and at the surface), forecasted CAPE values will be around 2500j/kg during peak heating with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kt. This would suggest more organized storm structures with severe hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Heavy rainfall can also be expected (with forecasted PWAT values around 1.25-1.5 inches) and localized flooding may occur across some areas. Another round of thunderstorms are expected again Thursday afternoon and evening as an upper level trough approaches west TX from the south. This feature will be slow to exit the area and thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the CWA through Sunday. Best chances will reside across the higher terrain and Big Bend regions for now, though confidence in these locations remain low due to uncertainty of the exact position of the upper trough each day. Strong 850mb thermal ridge will thankfully remain to the west of the FA through this weekend with continued southeast winds at the surface. This will result in afternoon temperatures remaining below normal through the beginning of next week. Northerly flow aloft will develop across the area this weekend and continue this forecast package. With this pattern, we typically see upper level shortwaves moving south across the area generating convection across New Mexico that would then move south into our CWA. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs in the extended for mainly southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain regions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 93 70 90 67 / 40 20 30 10 BIG SPRING TX 93 73 91 70 / 30 20 30 10 CARLSBAD NM 98 69 95 69 / 30 20 30 20 DRYDEN TX 96 75 94 73 / 30 20 30 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 95 70 90 68 / 40 20 40 20 GUADALUPE PASS TX 91 69 87 65 / 30 20 30 20 HOBBS NM 93 66 91 64 / 40 30 30 20 MARFA TX 88 61 84 60 / 40 20 40 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 93 72 90 69 / 30 20 30 10 ODESSA TX 93 72 90 69 / 30 20 30 10 WINK TX 97 73 94 70 / 40 20 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10/27