National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2014-06-18 09:35 UTC
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959 FXUS65 KABQ 180935 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 335 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE A BIT WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST. SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ALONG THE STATES EASTERN BORDER. SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS AREAWIDE STARTING THURSDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY VARY WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SOME COOLER READINGS TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. && .DISCUSSION... THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT BOUT OF WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DRAW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DEEP...AND LOOKS TO BE TURNING NORTHWARD SOME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SE IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE MOISTURE OUR WAY. AS A RESULT...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THERE SHOULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60...SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR DRIER CELLS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BOARDER. DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE DRY LINE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A BROAD RIDGE ORIENTED ZONALLY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO HAVE A WEAKNESS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS...AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL HELP DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST AND SEEP HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD A BIT FARTHER WEST. THUS THE WEEKEND AHEAD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY DUE TO A MOIST BACK DOOR COOL FRONT. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS... TOUGH DECISIONS THIS MORNING REGARDING FIRE WX WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW PLATEAU AND NW HIGHLANDS. RECOVERIES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAKING A RUN NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WINDS ALOFT ARE BACKING SLIGHTLY AND TAPERING OFF AS WELL. HAINES VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST RIGHT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH GRADIENT TRENDING DOWN TO 4 OVER GALLUP. TEMPS WILL ALSO AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST. WILL CANCEL WATCH FOR BOTH ZONES. THAT SAID MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT THE COVERAGE IS JUST NOT ALL THAT HIGH. OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED DRY STORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MTS. YESTERDAY SAW A DECENT CROP OF DRY STORMS AND TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER COVERAGE. EXPECT LAL 6 FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THE EAST...AREAS HAVE MOISTENED UP VERY NICELY THIS MORNING. CLOVIS SAW 1 INCH OF RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. WET STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER THE EAST...WITH EVEN SOME SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE TX STATE LINE. RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR/ GOOD OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AND VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EAST. THE TRANSITION OUT OF A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY. IT WILL STILL HOWEVER BE VERY DRY FOR THE WEST BUT WINDS WILL TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ALL AREAS AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR GRADUALLY STRONGER MOISTURE INTRUSIONS EACH MORNING THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AGREEMENT IS EMERGING ON MOISTURE ADVECTING WEST TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS. A RIDGE ELONGATING FROM THE BAJA REGION MAY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER NM WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN TERRAIN DOMINATED SHOWER/STORM CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. DEFINITELY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF HESITANCY ON CONFIDENCE BUT IT MAY BE WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPIN UP THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM. GUYER && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AVIATION THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED AS STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST FROM MOSTLY DRY -TSRA DOWNBURSTS THAT PRODUCE ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 82 46 85 48 / 10 5 0 0 DULCE........................... 76 36 82 36 / 30 10 0 0 CUBA............................ 75 43 82 43 / 20 10 5 5 GALLUP.......................... 81 41 83 40 / 10 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 74 40 78 41 / 10 5 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 77 42 82 41 / 20 5 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 76 48 80 49 / 20 5 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 84 45 89 46 / 10 5 0 0 CHAMA........................... 70 37 76 37 / 30 10 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 76 53 80 55 / 20 10 5 5 PECOS........................... 76 51 78 53 / 20 10 10 10 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 43 79 43 / 10 10 5 5 RED RIVER....................... 66 43 69 45 / 10 20 10 10 ANGEL FIRE...................... 71 35 73 35 / 20 10 10 10 TAOS............................ 77 41 81 42 / 10 10 5 5 MORA............................ 76 47 79 47 / 20 10 10 10 ESPANOLA........................ 83 48 86 50 / 20 10 5 5 SANTA FE........................ 78 53 80 55 / 20 10 5 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 50 85 52 / 20 10 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 60 86 62 / 20 10 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 59 88 62 / 20 10 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 57 90 59 / 20 10 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 87 58 91 60 / 20 10 5 5 LOS LUNAS....................... 88 54 90 56 / 20 10 5 5 RIO RANCHO...................... 88 57 91 59 / 20 10 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 92 61 94 62 / 20 10 5 5 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 55 86 56 / 20 10 5 5 TIJERAS......................... 83 55 84 57 / 20 10 5 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 49 82 49 / 20 10 5 5 CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 53 83 54 / 20 10 10 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 56 85 56 / 20 10 5 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 88 61 87 58 / 10 10 5 5 RUIDOSO......................... 83 52 83 51 / 20 10 10 10 CAPULIN......................... 81 51 79 52 / 20 20 20 20 RATON........................... 86 50 84 51 / 20 10 20 20 SPRINGER........................ 85 49 86 50 / 20 10 20 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 81 49 83 50 / 20 10 10 10 CLAYTON......................... 91 60 88 60 / 20 20 20 20 ROY............................. 84 55 84 56 / 20 10 20 20 CONCHAS......................... 93 61 93 62 / 20 20 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 90 60 91 60 / 20 20 10 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 96 64 93 65 / 20 30 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 89 61 90 60 / 30 30 30 30 PORTALES........................ 91 64 92 63 / 30 30 30 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 92 64 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 ROSWELL......................... 95 66 96 66 / 30 20 20 20 PICACHO......................... 89 61 88 59 / 20 20 20 20 ELK............................. 85 58 83 56 / 20 20 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105. && $$ 44