AFOS product AFDABQ
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Product Timestamp: 2014-06-18 09:35 UTC

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FXUS65 KABQ 180935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE A BIT WETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST. SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ALONG THE STATES
EASTERN BORDER. SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AREAWIDE STARTING THURSDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY VARY WITHIN 6
DEGREES OF NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SOME COOLER READINGS TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RECENT
BOUT OF WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DRAW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DEEP...AND LOOKS TO BE TURNING NORTHWARD SOME...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SE IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE MOISTURE
OUR WAY. AS A RESULT...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THERE SHOULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60...SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR DRIER
CELLS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR NEW MEXICOS EASTERN
BOARDER.

DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY LINE SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A BROAD
RIDGE ORIENTED ZONALLY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE IS FORECAST
BY MODELS TO HAVE A WEAKNESS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS...AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL HELP DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST AND
SEEP HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD A BIT FARTHER WEST. THUS THE
WEEKEND AHEAD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY DUE TO A MOIST
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS...

TOUGH DECISIONS THIS MORNING REGARDING FIRE WX WATCH THAT IS IN 
EFFECT FOR THE NW PLATEAU AND NW HIGHLANDS. RECOVERIES HAVE TRENDED 
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAKING A RUN NORTH
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WINDS ALOFT ARE BACKING SLIGHTLY AND
TAPERING OFF AS WELL. HAINES VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST RIGHT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH GRADIENT TRENDING DOWN TO 4 OVER GALLUP.
TEMPS WILL ALSO AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL TODAY FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHWEST. WILL CANCEL WATCH FOR BOTH ZONES. THAT SAID MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
BUT THE COVERAGE IS JUST NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED DRY STORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NORTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MTS. YESTERDAY SAW A DECENT CROP
OF DRY STORMS AND TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER COVERAGE. EXPECT LAL
6 FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. FOR THE EAST...AREAS HAVE MOISTENED UP VERY
NICELY THIS MORNING. CLOVIS SAW 1 INCH OF RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. WET
STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER THE EAST...WITH EVEN SOME SEVERE CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TX STATE LINE. RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR/
GOOD OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AND VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EAST. 

THE TRANSITION OUT OF A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY.
IT WILL STILL HOWEVER BE VERY DRY FOR THE WEST BUT WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ALL AREAS AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE 
FAR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS 
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM BEGINNING SATURDAY AND 
CONTINUING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE THE 
COOLEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR GRADUALLY STRONGER MOISTURE INTRUSIONS 
EACH MORNING THRU THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AGREEMENT IS EMERGING ON MOISTURE ADVECTING
WEST TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS. A RIDGE ELONGATING FROM THE BAJA REGION
MAY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER NM WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGIN TERRAIN DOMINATED SHOWER/STORM CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DEFINITELY A CERTAIN DEGREE OF HESITANCY ON CONFIDENCE BUT IT MAY
BE WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPIN UP THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON SYSTEM. 


GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AVIATION THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED AS STORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST FROM MOSTLY DRY -TSRA DOWNBURSTS THAT
PRODUCE ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  82  46  85  48 /  10   5   0   0 
DULCE...........................  76  36  82  36 /  30  10   0   0 
CUBA............................  75  43  82  43 /  20  10   5   5 
GALLUP..........................  81  41  83  40 /  10   0   0   0 
EL MORRO........................  74  40  78  41 /  10   5   0   0 
GRANTS..........................  77  42  82  41 /  20   5   0   0 
QUEMADO.........................  76  48  80  49 /  20   5   0   0 
GLENWOOD........................  84  45  89  46 /  10   5   0   0 
CHAMA...........................  70  37  76  37 /  30  10   5   5 
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  53  80  55 /  20  10   5   5 
PECOS...........................  76  51  78  53 /  20  10  10  10 
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  43  79  43 /  10  10   5   5 
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  69  45 /  10  20  10  10 
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  35  73  35 /  20  10  10  10 
TAOS............................  77  41  81  42 /  10  10   5   5 
MORA............................  76  47  79  47 /  20  10  10  10 
ESPANOLA........................  83  48  86  50 /  20  10   5   5 
SANTA FE........................  78  53  80  55 /  20  10   5   5 
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  83  50  85  52 /  20  10   5   5 
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  84  60  86  62 /  20  10   5   5 
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  59  88  62 /  20  10   5   5 
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  57  90  59 /  20  10   5   5 
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  87  58  91  60 /  20  10   5   5 
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  54  90  56 /  20  10   5   5 
RIO RANCHO......................  88  57  91  59 /  20  10   0   0 
SOCORRO.........................  92  61  94  62 /  20  10   5   5 
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  85  55  86  56 /  20  10   5   5 
TIJERAS.........................  83  55  84  57 /  20  10   5   5 
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  49  82  49 /  20  10   5   5 
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  53  83  54 /  20  10  10  10 
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  85  56  85  56 /  20  10   5   5 
CARRIZOZO.......................  88  61  87  58 /  10  10   5   5 
RUIDOSO.........................  83  52  83  51 /  20  10  10  10 
CAPULIN.........................  81  51  79  52 /  20  20  20  20 
RATON...........................  86  50  84  51 /  20  10  20  20 
SPRINGER........................  85  49  86  50 /  20  10  20  20 
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  49  83  50 /  20  10  10  10 
CLAYTON.........................  91  60  88  60 /  20  20  20  20 
ROY.............................  84  55  84  56 /  20  10  20  20 
CONCHAS.........................  93  61  93  62 /  20  20  20  20 
SANTA ROSA......................  90  60  91  60 /  20  20  10  10 
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  64  93  65 /  20  30  20  20 
CLOVIS..........................  89  61  90  60 /  30  30  30  30 
PORTALES........................  91  64  92  63 /  30  30  30  30 
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  64  92  64 /  20  20  20  20 
ROSWELL.........................  95  66  96  66 /  30  20  20  20 
PICACHO.........................  89  61  88  59 /  20  20  20  20 
ELK.............................  85  58  83  56 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE 
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105.

&&

$$

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