469 
FXUS63 KEAX 180859
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

Wednesday should start out without the complication of Tuesday with 
respect to the surging outflow that likely contributed to the lessor 
heat index values than was anticipated. Skies look to be mostly 
clear across the area, and good southerly flow is in place across 
the area as all observing sites are S/SW around 15 gusting to 25. A 
fairly moist atmosphere is already in place over the forecast area 
as lower 70 degree dewpoints are present in almost all observing 
stations. Despite mixing this afternoon to around 850 mb, expect 
this moist atmosphere to remain in place through the afternoon and 
evening hours. With mostly clear skies allowing for good insolation, 
as well as the decent mixing, it's conceivable that the forecast 
area could see temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. These 
temperatures in combination with the humid conditions will bring 
heat index values into the upper 90s to lower 100s. Rain does not 
look very possible on Wednesday as the lower to mid atmosphere looks 
to be rather capped off with a warm nose around 700 mb. That in 
combination with no real focus for ascent will preclude any mention 
of precipitation, at least through the afternoon and early evening 
hours.

By late tonight deep convection could be ongoing across eastern 
Nebraska and western Iowa. This batch of convection could drop 
south/southeast in the form of a late evening/overnight MCS, and 
perhaps clip the northern most counties of Missouri. High 
instability and deep shear of around 30 to 40 kts could help the MCS 
maintain its strength as it pushes to the southeast. The hazards 
with this complex will likely be heavy rain, as well as some gusty 
winds, and perhaps some small hail. The better chance for 
thunderstorm activity will likely arrive through the day on Thursday 
as the trough over the northern Plains takes on a negative tilt and 
ejects northeastward. The influence of that trough will likely allow 
for some mid level ascent, aiding in the formation of more 
widespread convection on Thursday afternoon. While instability will 
be quite large, given the very moist atmosphere, the wind profile 
over the forecast area will likely not be conducive to organizing 
very many updrafts enough to cause any high-impact severe weather. 
While heavy rain, as well as gusty winds and maybe some small hail 
will be likely with these storms, it's unlikely that large hail or 
any damaging winds will be widespread occurrences. 

A weak frontal boundary should slide through the area for Friday, 
which should shunt the best chances for rain south/southeast of the 
forecast area for Friday. The cooler air will also help to bring 
temperatures back down into the middle to upper 80s through the end 
of the week and into this weekend. Precipitation chances through the 
weekend become tougher to nail down as a mid level ridge forms over 
the central and southern Plains. However, most of Missouri will find 
itself under some decent flow at 500 mb, out of the northwest. With 
this better mid level flow over head it will keep alive chances for 
overnight MCS activity to move through the forecast area. Kept 
chance PoPs though the forecast period, as that flow remains over 
the area through at least mid week. Latest ECMWF hints at the mid 
level ridge over the plains being taken over by a strong mid level 
trough, which may help to enhance chances at showers and 
thunderstorms for early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

Gusty winds will be present across the area through the overnight
hours. Gusts will come and go as the night progresses as some
decopling has occurred in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Once
daytime mixing commences on Wednesday morning gusts will be more
prevailing through the daytime hours. Showers and thunderstorms could
move into the terminals very late in the forecast period, but will
likely introduce those shower chances in the next forecast issuance
at 12z. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton