593 
FXUS63 KEAX 152326
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

This morning's MCS and a cold front appear to have put the lid on 
renewed development of storms for much of the area this afternoon 
and for the overnight hours. The exception will be along our 
southern and southeast counties where the front has stalled and 
should remain in that area through the evening before slowly mixing 
north later tonight.  Several of the higher res models develop 
storms along the front with a small cluster, depicted by the latest 
run of the HRRR, moving up out of NE OK /SW KS after midnight.  
Thus, have slight chance to low chance pops across our far southern 
and southeast counties. Damaging wind and locally heavy rain are the 
main threats should storms become deep enough and persist. 

Tomorrow the front will retreat north into IA with mid / upper 
ridging developing overhead leaving us in a very warm and humid 
airmass. The muggy day will also be rather breezy which may help 
mitigate how sticky it will feel outside. It is possible there may 
be an isolated shower or storm in the morning and afternoon hours, 
but there will be a rather stout cap yet very large instability in 
place. The higher probability for storms will exists across our far 
northern counties by late in the afternoon and into the evening as a 
low amplitude trough passes across the upper Midwest/ WRN Great 
Lakes region.  The trough will produce storms mainly well north of 
the CWA, but it is possible mid-level cooling assoc with the trough 
may allow for activity to develop as outlined above.  Due to the 
large amount of instability storms would rapidly grow and capable of 
producing large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence is low with respect to whether we will see any
development so only low chance pops across the far northern zones at
this time. Tuesday should be dry and rather hot and muggy again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Later periods of the forecast remain relatively unchanged. Medium 
range models continue to advertise the development of a Rex Block 
across the North America as we transit into the mid-work-week time 
period as troughs hold strong over each Canadian coast with a trough 
shifting through the Pacific Northwest to become a closed 
circulation across the Dakotas by the end of the week. Generally 
speaking, this pattern will leave the Lower Missouri River Valley 
hot and humid through the later half of the forecast with an 
occasional shot at storms. H8 temperatures through the week will 
remain in the high teens to low 20 centigrade while impulses zip 
through the northern and central Plains. Precipitation chance look 
best to our north Wednesday night into Thursday as warm air 
advection ahead of the closed circulation across the northern Plains 
develops. Have kept chance POPs going into Friday with a returning 
chance at precipitation later Saturday. However, this is a low 
confidence forecast given the vagaries of a closed circulation under 
a blocking ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Expect surface winds to back near/shortly after 00z with the current
ceilings gradually lowering some overnight to near 3kft. Some
potential for patchy fog/low cigs to occur near terminal towards
daybreak. Otherwise, wind speeds increase by mid morning with some
gusts AOA 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Blair