619 
FXUS62 KILM 140239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH BRINGS SLIGHT DRYING TO THE AREA. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER WITH HUMIDITY AND WARMTH...ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND UP OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE
WHAT IS BASICALLY DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION. CANT RULE
OUT MORE ACTIVITY REGARDING CONVECTION BUT OVERALL THE TREND HAS
BEEN DOWN THE PAST FEW HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKING DRIER...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS NC AS A COLD FRONT WORKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. VORTICITY FIELDS
SUGGEST DOWNWARD MOTION OF COLUMN PARCELS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
DILEMMA IS THE FRONT HANGS UP AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OUR
FORECAST ZONES...STRADDLING FROM WEST TO EAST. THUS DESPITE DRYING
TRENDS...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE FOCUS IN DIURNAL HEATING.
FOR THIS REASON WE INCLUDE THE BEST CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS SOUTH OR VICINITY OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. THE FRONT FURTHER
WEAKENS INTO SUNDAY AND DISSIPATES LATE. CANNOT RULE OUT SHRA
TSTMS SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN ISOLATED AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED AND
FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MIDDLE JUNE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A WEAK TROUGH 
OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD 
BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE AROUND 90 INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEACHES ON MONDAY AND 
WILL WARM TO THE MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE BEACHES 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY 
NIGHT AND SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR 
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ITS CORRESPONDING COLD 
FRONT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT...OUR TERMINALS COULD 
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...PRIMARILY 
BETWEEN 00-06Z. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED 
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO WARRANT VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS COULD 
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG 
ISSUES OVERNIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS 
6-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND 
THEN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS 
OUR AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD...DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT 
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. WILL NOT MENTION PCPN IN THE TAFS FOR 
TOMORROW...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT 
LIGHT N-NE WINDS INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE ALONG THE 
COAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S-SE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.  

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER TO OUR 
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
STILL FAIRLY BRISK OUT THERE VIA JMPN7...20 KNOTS AND SEAS TO
MATCH 41110...JUST UNDER FOUR FEET. THESE ELEMENTS ARE COVERED
WELL IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...OVERALL MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND SINCE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. A COLD FROM THE N WILL BRING A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 10-15 KT FROM THE NE
WILL VEER TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OF SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT MAINLY...COULD
BUILD TO 4 FEET OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT IN PERSISTENT SE FLOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...A VERY CALM TIME ON THE WATERS AS A WEAKENING
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ON MONDAY TO 2 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...BJR