391 
FXUS62 KILM 111039
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE UPSWING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. A PIEDMONT THROUGH 
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND MAY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF AS EXPECTED AND A 
RAPID CLIMB IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND 3 AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WELL THE TYPICAL "SAUNA" FEEL OF A CAROLINA 
SUMMER WILL AGAIN BE IN FULL SWING...AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINE TO 
MAKE TODAY OPPRESSIVE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE 
QUITE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW 90S COMBINED 
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES 
TOWARDS 100 ONCE AGAIN. THE SPATIAL PATTERN OF TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A 
BIT UNUSUAL...AS THE HIGHEST FORECAST TEMPS ARE ACROSS THE NW 
COUNTIES TODAY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS 
COOLER NEAR THE COAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS/MORE 
RAPID DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW ZONES DOING THE SAME 
THERE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE FOR THOSE VENTURING 
OUTSIDE TODAY.

THE CAUSE OF THIS HEAT IS A SLOWLY-ERODING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND AN OFFSHORE 
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...SLOW EROSION OF THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL 
OCCUR THANKS TO A DECAYING...BUT EASTWARD TRANSLATING...500MB TROUGH 
OPENING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE MS/TN VLY. THE PRIMARY FORCING 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR AFTER THE NEAR TERM...BUT 
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF IT WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY 
THIS EVE/TONIGHT. THIS LOWERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD 
TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND EXPECT COVERAGE OF TSTMS 
TODAY TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN IT HAS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS AND DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL CREATE AN 
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TODAY. PWATS WILL RISE TOWARDS 
1.8 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INLAND ZONES...WHILE SBCAPE VALUES PUSH 
2000-3000 J/KG. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER THIS AFTN...AND ESPECIALLY 
THIS EVENING...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY...AND -10C 
TO -30C CAPE INCREASES TO 600-1000 J/KG...WHILE THE LOWEST LEVELS 
REMAIN DRY DUE TO MIXING AND WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURES DEVELOP IN 
FORECAST PROFILES. ALTHOUGH UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...PULSE STORMS 
TODAY WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND ZONES WHERE RESIDUAL 
BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC WILL 
SERVE AS CONVECTIVE FOCAL POINTS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME SLIGHTLY 
BETTER ORGANIZATION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE INLAND AS THE 850MB LLJ 
NOSES INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVE. WHILE WIDESPREAD STRONG TSTMS 
ARE NOT EXPECTED...SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA (POSSIBLY 
NUMEROUS WELL INLAND LATER IN THE DAY)...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO 
PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST...AS WELL AS 
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN 
A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY1 FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND EVENT TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK TONIGHT...FUELED BY 
INCREASING PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND ELEVATED CAPE 
WITHIN A DEEP RESIDUAL LAYER. CONVECTION STRENGTH WILL LIKELY 
WANE...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY 
WINDS...FALLING ONLY INTO THE SUMMER-LIKE 70S...WITH A FEW UPR 60S 
POSSIBLE FAR NW.


&&


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE 
REGION ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IT SHOULD STILL SERVE TO 
RAISE POPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNLESS STORMS FIRE EARLY ENOUGH 
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD INSOLATION-INHIBITING CLOUD COVER. THIS 
FEATURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE 
WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL FORCING FOR 
ASCENT MAY THUS BE DECREASED FRIDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY THE LOW 
LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE BETTER AS SFC-850MB TROUGH DROPS IN FROM 
THE NW. DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION 
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH 
OFF TO THE NORTH TO HAVE MUCH BEARING ON LOCAL WEATHER. HOWEVER THE 
PREFRONTAL PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS ON SATURDAY AND A NEARLY STALLED 
SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST BRINGS A DEEPER SWRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE. BOTH 
THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH APPEAR TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND 
A VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE DONT 
GET INTO MUCH DRYING ALOFT THOUGH SO THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STILL 
SUPPORT DECENT/AT LEAST CLIMO IF NOT HIGHER/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION 
TRIGGERED BY SEA BREEZE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY BRING A RETURN OF ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND THUS A DOWNWARD 
TREND IN RAIN CHANCES/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS 
GENERALLY REMAIN TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. CANNOT 
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR FOG AT KLBT...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 
STILL 10 DEGREES WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY FALLING TEMP/DEWPOINT 
CURVE...SO HAVE OPTED FOR VFR VSBYS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN 
SOME MID-LEVEL SCT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AT FLO...CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS 
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MORNING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER OUR 
CWA AND SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS 
AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 17-18Z...AND CONTINUING INTO THE 
EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED INLAND 
AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER KFLO/KLBT BETWEEN 18Z 
WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY TO BECOME 
SOUTH 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ALONG THE 
COAST. IN ADDITION...TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY 
HIGHER GUSTS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS.

THERE IS A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE AT KCRE AND KMYR. WHILE TROUBLE 
TICKETS ARE OPEN WITH THE FAA...AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO 
BOTH OF THESE TAFS UNTIL THE PROBLEM IS FIXED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AND 
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING 
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 AM BELOW:

AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONTROL THE SYNOPTIC REGIME TODAY...PERSISTING THE SW WINDS OF 10-15 
KTS WHICH HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL PERIODS NOW. THE EXCEPTION 
TO THIS WILL BE IN THE VERY NEAR-SHORE WATERS WHERE A SEA BREEZE 
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...BACKING WINDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH 
WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 15 KTS...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. 
ALTHOUGH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WAVE 
SPECTRUM...WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE FORMED PREDOMINANTLY BY A 
SW WIND CHOP OF 4-5 SEC.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE BY JUNE THERE WILL BE 
LITTLE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY 
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE EAST. THE WOULD-BE 
RELAXATION IN GRADIENT HEADING INTO  FRIDAY WILL BE OFFSET BY A 
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED 
WINDS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 
THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS BY ABOUT 5 KT ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ADD A 
LITTLE GUSTINESS. 


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...OVERLAND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS 
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIGHTEN THE FLOW. WEST 
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH PRESENCE TO KEEP A PRONOUNCED S 
TO SWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ALTHOUGH SPEED MAY DROP TO JUST 
10KT. WEAKNESS IN THE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS REMAINS SUNDAY 
OVER THE LANDMASS WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT OVER 
THE WATER. PIEDMONT TROUGH PROGGED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADD 
A FEW KNOTS TO THE FLOW. 


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/JDW