547 
FXUS62 KILM 110526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LESS INTENSE HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
READINGS...BUT WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEEKEND STORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLEAR AND NO TRIGGERS
TO RENEWED CONVECTION ARE CLOSE BY. GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION RE-INITIATING AROUND SUNRISE OR SO BUT
GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT DO NOT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEAR
TERM...BUT LIKELY WILL SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SOME DEBRIS CLOUD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CLOUD COVER PAST MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...INFLUENCED BY 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL KEEP LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...UNSETTLED THE THEME UPCOMING AS COOLING
ALOFT...AND SIGNALS OF ELEVATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONSPIRE TO OFFER
CONVECTION A BETTER PLATFORM TO BLOSSOM FROM. ESSENTIALLY WE LOSE
A MID-LVL CAP THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING TSTM LONGEVITY AND MATURITY.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY DESPITE WEAK
COLUMN WIND FIELDS AND LACKING BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS...BECAUSE OF
FAVORABLE PWAT/TD/CAPE VALUES. OUTFLOWS AND SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING STORMS...AND POTENTIALLY DIFLUENT
AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD ADD LONGEVITY TO EXISTING TSTMS.
MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAILSTONES...SINCE COOLING ALOFT
IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. EXTENT OF CLOUDS A FACTOR IN INSOLATION
AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND WE FULLY EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT ALSO
BREAKS. ANY SUNLIT AREAS INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR GAME
FOR STORM INITIATION.

UPPER TROUGH AND DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD SPELL LESS INTENSE HEAT WED
AND THU COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MINIMUMS IN THE 70S BOTH WED/THU
MORNING EXPECTED. NOW THAT SSTS HAVE CLIMBED MORE IN EARNEST...A
FEW LOWS MAY BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT REACHES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON 
FRIDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT MAY MOVE JUST OFF SHORE 
INITIALLY BY SAT MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 
WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT 
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. VERY 
HUMID AND WARM AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL CREATE AN 
ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE 
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AS FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH 
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN A FOCAL POINT 
FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE 
AND OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP. MAY SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND 
FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN RIDGE BUILDS IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD 
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DECREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS FRONT WASHES OUT. 

OVERALL WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MOIST S-SW RETURN FLOW FROM THE 
SURFACE UP THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A 
SLIGHT VEERING TO THE WEST AS FRONT MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 
PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN ONCE FRONT MOVES IN AND WILL 
BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND INFLUENCED BY THE SEA/LAND BREEZE THROUGH 
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME 
MORE W-NW BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SW BY 
LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD 
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THEREFORE THERE WILL MORE IN THE WAY OF 
CLOUDS AROUND AND CHC OF SHWRS. 

WITHOUT MUCH OF CHANGE IN AIRMASS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY CLOUD COVER AND 
CONVECTION...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND CLOSE TO 
90 INLAND EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS 
GENERALLY REMAIN TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. CANNOT 
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR FOG AT KLBT...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 
STILL 10 DEGREES WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY FALLING TEMP/DEWPOINT 
CURVE...SO HAVE OPTED FOR VFR VSBYS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN 
SOME MID-LEVEL SCT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AT FLO...CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS 
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MORNING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE OVER OUR 
CWA AND SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS 
AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 17-18Z...AND CONTINUING INTO THE 
EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED INLAND 
AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER KFLO/KLBT BETWEEN 18Z 
WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY TO BECOME 
SOUTH 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ALONG THE 
COAST. IN ADDITION...TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY 
HIGHER GUSTS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS.

THERE IS A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE AT KCRE AND KMYR. WHILE TROUBLE 
TICKETS ARE OPEN WITH THE FAA...AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO 
BOTH OF THESE TAFS UNTIL THE PROBLEM IS FIXED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED AND 
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS NOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE WATERS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRADIENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENT S-SW WINDS EXPECTED WED/THU WITH
2-3 FOOT SEAS...AND AS HIGH AS 4 FEET AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. NEAR
SHORE GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOONS TO EARLY
EVENING. TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS WED/THU AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. VERY LITTLE SWELL WAVES AT THE
MOMENT AND 2-4 FOOT SEAS WILL BE LINKED MOSTLY WITH WIND-WAVES
AND WAVE PERIODS OF 3-5 SECONDS. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY AND OFTEN NOTABLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...S-SW RETURN FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AROUND SFC HIGH 
OFF SHORE MAY BE AFFECTED BY COLD FRONT REACHING INTO OR CLOSE BY 
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY WILL SEE WINDS ALOFT VEER 
AROUND MORE THAN SFC FLOW BUT EXPECT A VEERING AND LIGHTENING OF SFC 
WINDS BEHIND BOUNDARY EARLY SAT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL AND 
WAVER CLOSE BY OR OVERHEAD AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER THE 
WEEKEND. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE 
CONTROLLED MORE SO BY LAND/SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORE. BUT VERY 
MANAGEABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH A 
SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN 
INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT ON FRI WILL DROP OFF 
QUICKLY THROUGH SAT MORNING AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND THEN WILL REMAIN 3 
FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/JDW
MARINE...MJC/REK/III/RGZ