398 
FXUS63 KMPX 082056
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A WEAK EAST/NE FLOW IN 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR. PWATS ARE AROUND 0.40" TO 0.60" THIS AFTN WHICH WILL TAKE 
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP ONCE THIS NEXT WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE 
REGION OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BULK OF THE SHRA 
ACROSS SE SD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIR MASS 
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE THE KEY FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HRS AS THE MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERN IA SLOWLY MOVES NW
OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY 
REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU MONDAY. THEREFORE...THE BEST 
POTENTIAL OF SHRA WILL OCCUR IN SW/SC MN...WITH POPS DECREASING 
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HIGH CLOUD BASES AND THE CONTINUED DRY E/SE
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHEST QPF AMTS SOUTH OF THE IA/MN BORDER.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER BASED ON
THIS SCENARIO...WITH CHC POPS NORTH AND NE OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ND
WHICH WILL SAG SE ACROSS NW MN OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SYSTEM IN NEBRASKA...AND THE AIR FLOW IN
CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE DIVERGENT
IN THE LOWEST 1KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHERN MN. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A RAPID DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
THIS RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO NOTED ON THE NMM/ARW
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICTING THE REFLECTIVITY PATTERN LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION CHC/S TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

FOR MOST OF THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD WE/LL FIND 
OURSELVES IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WITH A SLOWLY MOVING 
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE NORTHERN WAVE LOOKS TO FINALLY BRING 
SOME FORCING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY EFFECTS OF THE CUTOFF UPPER 
LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA... SO KEPT POPS 
OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL ARRIVES IN 
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE 
FORECAST DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF/NAM/GEM BY WEDNESDAY... 
WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE SHEARED OPEN NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN 
COMPARISON TO THE OTHERS... WHICH HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP AMPLIFIED 
FEATURE AND MANAGE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE OVER MINNESOTA ALONG 
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER... BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD AT 
LEAST POINT TOWARD SOME PCPN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE GFS 
SIMPLY HAVING QUICKER TIMING. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS 
POINT... WITH THE PATTERN LOOKING TO BE BLOCKED TO SOME EXTENT AND A 
SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION MAKING MORE SENSE. SO... LIMITED THE 
PCPN POTENTIAL TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. 
BESIDE A SLOWER PRECIP TIMING...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM SOLUTIONS WOULD 
ALSO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AN ADVANCING 
COLD FRONT AS A BETTER THAN 50 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ALLOWS BULK 
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BUILD TO OVER 40 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BLEED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENSUES. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW 
FAR WEST ACTIVITY MAKES IT. BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTED NON-GFS 
TIMING...BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 
WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE POPS UP AROUND 50 PERCENT CAN BE FOUND.

THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. BY THE END OF THE DAY...THE ECMWF HAS 
H85 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO AROUND +5C. 08.12 RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD HIGHS 
ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH 60S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR 
EAST...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF NUDGING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES 
FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE NOW BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR 
THEME...WITH ANOTHER WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITHIN A 
QUASI ZONAL FLOW...THOUGH DISAGREE A BIT ON TIMING. IN THIS 
CASE...THEY SWAP ROLES FROM THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF 
BEING THE SHALLOWER/FASTER ONE...WHILE THE GFS IS THE 
STRONGER/SLOWER ONE. LIKE WEDNESDAY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A SEVERE 
POTENTIAL WITH THIS GIVEN MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP MID-LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ATOP AN EML COMING UP FROM THE 
SRN PLAINS. CONSIDERING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEEK FOR SEVERE WEATHER 
SEASON IN THE MPX CWA IS JUNE 17TH...ONE WOULD THINK WE SHOULD START 
TO SEE AN UPTICK AT SOME POINT SOON IN OUR SEVERE WEATHER DURING 
THIS CONVECTIVE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA IN FAR SW/SC MN WITH KRWF HAVING THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFT 12Z/09. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS WITH
A GENERAL LIGHT E/SE WIND. 

KMSP...

DUE TO A DRY E/ENE FLOW...BELIEVE ANY RAINFALL LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH VFR CIGS. BEST POTENTIAL OF ANY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFT 12Z/09 WITH CIGS AOA 5K. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM
THE ENE THIS AFTN...AND MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THRU
MONDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS. 
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT