747 
FXUS62 KILM 081912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN
OFFSHORE...WITH SOUTH WINDS BRINGING WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND 
A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...NEAR TERM CHALLENGE REMAINS CENTERED AROUND
THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING BASICALLY IN THE SAME PLACE AS IT DID
YESTERDAY ALBEIT WITH A BIT OF A MORE NORTHWARD EXTENSION. SOME OF
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE TAKING ON A BIT OF MORE NORTH TO EVEN
NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS. OVERALL
THE AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE MODELS KEEP THE
ACTIVITY BASICALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON
TO THE POPS THERE AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE HIGHER CHANCE TO LIKELY
VALUES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON TRENDS. COAST SHOULD REMAIN
ALL BUT CONVECTION FREE. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATES
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN INLAND
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL. FINALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THIS
MORNINGS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH LINE WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AS A
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTH OVER A BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS AS SOUTH WINDS BRING TROPICAL
AIR IN FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.

DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ACT TO LIMIT ALREADY-SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. TODAY'S 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE PAINTS A PATCHWORK OF QPF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WITHOUT ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
NOTE AND LITTLE INTER-MODEL CONSISTENCY IT IS TOUGH TO USE THIS
TO BASE A FORECAST ON. THEREFORE I WILL FOCUS T-STORM CHANCES ON
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY
TRENDS...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT ANYWHERE OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. I WOULD HAVE LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR
THE FACT GFS/NAM STORM-MOTION VECTORS ARE 12-18 MPH BOTH
DAYS...MEANING EVEN A FEW STORM CELLS COULD COVER A GOOD DEAL OF
TERRITORY.

HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS MORE THAN 15
MILES INLAND. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +17C ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE
(OR TWO) ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 92-95 DEGREE TEMPS
INLAND. ADD IN DEWPOINTS OF 70+ DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES TUESDAY
COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY
FALL INTO THE 70-75 RANGE BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FAIRLY WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST 
ESPECIALLY FOR JUNE...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION 
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD 
PROBABLY CALL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS...WILL GO AROUND 
40. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TUESDAY'S 
HEAT BUT MAY STILL BE A FEW DEG ABV CLIMO. MODELS AT ODDS AS TO WHEN 
THE MAIN VORT AXIS SWINGS ACROSS WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM 
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. IN THE END IT SEEMS BEST TO CARRY SIMILAR/40-ISH 
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR-ISH COLD FRONT DROPS INTO 
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND IT MAY LAST INTO SUNDAY. TOUGH TO CUT 
DIAMONDS AND SAY WHERE EXACTLY IT STALLS EITHER DAY. CURRENT GFS FOR 
EXAMPLE HAS IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ESP BY SUNDAY THAT SOME DRIER 
WEATHER CAN BE FCST FOR NC ZONES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE AND THE FACT THAT FRONTS DON'T GET QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS 
PROGGED THIS TIME OF YEAR PREFER TO KEEP SCATTERED POPS EVERYWHERE 
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE SHOWING A SLIGHT TRIMMING OF HIGH TEMPS. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SE AROUND 10 
KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. 
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT CONVECTION TO THE SW-W OF 
KFLO/KLBT WILL MOVE INTO THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT 
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE STABLE WILL JUST INDICATE VCSH ATTM 
AND NO TSRA IN TAFS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL 
TERMINALS.

SE-S WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LIGHT 
S-SW WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LGT/VRBL AT KFLO/KLBT. LOW 
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VSBYS COULD DROP 
TO TEMPO MVFR IN BR AT KFLO/KLBT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LOWER ANY 
POTENTIAL FOR ANY IFR VSBYS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR EXPECTED WITH S-SW 
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN/EVNG 
SHRA/TSRA WITH TEMPO SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN FG EARLY EACH MORNING MAINLY AT THE 
INLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE AFFECTS WANE. SPEEDS WILL
ALSO DROP TO AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. RISING PRESSURES
OFFSHORE AND A STALLED FRONT FROM TENNESSEE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS MEANS OUR WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR QUITE LOW...ALTHOUGH MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING ON TUESDAY
MORNING FOR A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE WITH WINDS AVERAGING 10 KNOTS (LOCALLY
15 KNOTS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE) SEAS SHOULD RUN 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY STATIC WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD DESPITE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY IN THE FLOW ALOFT THAN 
WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR JUNE. WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN EARLY DAY RIDGE AXIS INTO THE 
CAROLINAS MAY CAST A LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE S TO SW 
FLOW. WEAK OVERLAND TROUGH ASSOC WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ON 
THURSDAY TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT TO THE TUNE OF JUST A FEW KNOTS 
WORTH OF WIND. THIS FEATURE MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...IF SO THEN 
THERE MAY BE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN SWRLY SWELL ENERGY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/MRR