186 
FXUS63 KOAX 051116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES OF INTERMITTENT TSTMS.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS THIS MORNING AS A COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT WEAKENING A
BIT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY CLIP PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY
TODAY AND SPREAD EAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVES WILL BE IN OUR EXTREME EXTREME SOUTH. THE CONVECTION-
ALLOWING NEAR TERM MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
IN THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE MET THIS AFTERNOON...DO EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND THEN DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. 

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW DUE WEAK SHEAR. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL SOMEWHAT IN DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING SO DID NOT GET TOO
CARRIED AWAY WITH MAKING BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND THIS
MORNING BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. MAIN COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL STAY DOWN
ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT CROSSES NEBRASKA...WE COULD GET SOME PCPN AND MVFR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ALSO WITH SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW OF
THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SCATTERED TSRA. THEN IT APPEARS WE COULD
SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG.

SO THERE IS PLENTY GOING ON TODAY...AND WILL SEND SOME
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER