048 
FXUS65 KLKN 251017
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS A LITTLE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
RIDGE. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES IN
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...BACKING THE FLOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD TO SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY. 


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY  
DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UNCERTAINTY  
INCREASING AFTER THAT POINT. ON MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NORTHERN NEVADA
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING. EVEN SO...HAVE KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WHITE PINE COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. IT 
IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE TIME...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW...MAINLY IN
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ALL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE IN OREGON...BUT THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN BEING FASTER. NORTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE WINDY
THAT DAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARENT LOW IN THE
WASHINGTON STATE AREA BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH. BUT TIMING IS DIFFERENT AND CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME REMAINS LOW ON ITS EFFECTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR 
PERIOD. OCCASIONAL BREEZES WILL BE HAD AT ALL TAF SITES 
W-NW10-15G20KT. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TODAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY RESULTING IN SOME CUMULUS
CLOUD BUILD UPS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER NORTHERN 469 AND 470. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT
GUSTIER AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS VERIFIES FRIDAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CENTERED OVER 455 AND SOUTHERN 470...THOUGH STILL ONLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. 

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

96/86/86/96