487 
FXUS62 KILM 251017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW TODAY AND THEN START CREEPING UP
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THIS COULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WHILE KEEPING THE
LATE WEEK WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MILD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS A BROAD AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DOMINATING EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS AN H/5 RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE SHIFT IN
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BRING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SE AND
THEN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A WEAK WAA REGIME TO SET
UP...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 80S
INLAND. SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PATCHES OF
CIRRUS OF VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP BUT
THAT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS
SILENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR WESTERN
DARLINGTON...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MORE OR LESS COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
FOR THAT AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER
60S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST 
ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING NWRLY FLOW. AS SUCH 
PRECIP WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MATERIALIZE ESPECIALLY IN MEASURABLE 
QUANTITIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT MORE PRESENT 
OVER INLAND SC ZONES WHERE SCHC POPS WILL REMAIN BUT THE REST OF THE 
AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND THE 
HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER THAN DAYS LEADING UP TO MON. DRY AIR MAY 
STILL PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND MORESO FOR 
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR ALL OF THE INCREASINGLY BROWN AND 
CRUNCHY LAWNS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A MEANINGFUL 
LOW LEVEL TRIGGER FOR PRECIP AS A WELL DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH 
FORMS. ADDITIONALLY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND 
THE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL GROW LIGHT ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE 
DOWNSLOPE DRYING THIS FAR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PIEDMONT TROUGH WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE BACK 
DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STILL SKEPTICAL AS TO 
THIS FEATURE BEING AS QUICK AND STRONG AS SHOWN ON THE GFS. IF SO 
THEN WEDNESDAY MAY BE RATHER UNSETTLED. IF NOT THEN IT COULD BE A 
TRANSITIONAL DAY WHERE THE WEAKENED TROUGH PROVIDES LESS LIFT AND 
PRECIP COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AN IDEA SUPPORTED 
BY BOTH EC AND CANADIAN. THIS WILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE EFFECT ON THE 
LATE PERIOD FORECAST AS THERE SHOULD BE A DAY OF COOLER TEMPS AND 
RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES POST FROPA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT BACK TO 
THE NORTH. MODELS DIFFERING BY ABOUT A DAY AS TO WHEN THIS ALL 
UNFOLDS. ONLY RELATIVELY SAFE TREND IS TO GO COOLER THAN CLIMO AFTER 
WEDNESDAY AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST THE ENTIRE TIME. &&

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE 
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT. STILL...GIVEN 
THE CALM WINDS AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...WILL ADD TEMPO MVFR 
VSBYS FOR FOG-PRONE KLBT AROUND DAYBREAK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT/VRB. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS 
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE 6-10 KTS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST AS THE 
SEA BREEZE BEGINS PUSHING INLAND. IN ADDITION TO SOME DIURNAL CU 
LATER TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
STREAM OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.   

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY AFTN... 
MAINLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH INLAND MOVEMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
FIRST DAY OF THE LONG FETCH AS WELL SO NO REAL SWELL
COMPONENT...JUST THE MINIMAL WIND WAVES. TUESDAY KEEPS THE FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH AN UPTICK IN SPEED. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MORE
THAN COMPENSATE FOR A NET TIGHTER GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO 2 TO 4
AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A PRETTY UNCERTAIN PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO MAINLY 
THE WIND FORECAST. PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND 
ALLOW FOR A W TO SW WIND WHILE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 
FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS PUSH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW AND 
INCREASED WINDS BUT MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. 
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TO THE NE OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY 
BUT FEEL THAT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE PUSHED BACK BY AS MUCH AS A DAY. 
THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INTRODUCE 5 FT SEAS MAINLY TO NRN 
ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/MBB