National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTFX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2014-05-20 21:03 UTC
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519 FXUS65 KTFX 202103 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 303 PM MDT Tue May 20 2014 .DISCUSSION... Tuesday through Thursday...Showers and Isolated thunderstorms continue to develop and move across the area this afternoon as weak instability no significant sheer will cause the showers to form as a pulse storm archetype. This should not support any damaging hail or wind...however some gusts towards 30 mph or dime size hail will be possible with strongest storms. Storms are expected to diminish towards sunset as thermal surface circulations die off and a stable boundary level develops. Temperatures will climb through Thursday...although the limited moisture will prevent widespread shower and thunderstorm formation through the remainder of the short term. Suk Thursday night through Tuesday...Medium range models are once again showing good agreement through most of the period. Forecast will be dominated by a moist and somewhat unstable southwest flow aloft as an upper level trough remains along the west coast. Model guidance continues to indicate warm temperatures with most lower elevation locations approaching or exceeding 80 degrees on Friday. However, as the moist southwest flow aloft continues into the weekend it will bring cooler temperatures and an increasing chance for daily showers and thunderstorms for the weekend and early next week. mpj && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1715Z. Atmosphere will become slightly unstable after 20Z with sct light to moderate SHRA and a few TS possible. Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period, except in the vicinity of any showers and/or storms...where erratic wind gusts and briefly lowered CIGS are possible. Shower activity will diminish after 02Z/Wednesday. Uttech && .HYDROLOGY... The East Gallatin River near Bozeman, which has remained near flood stage the last 24 hours, have seen a few rises but has generally remained near flood stage. Have elected to let the warning expire for the timing being... although some brief rises above flood stage are possible. Will continue to closely monitor this system and if a dramatic increase in river level occurs then another flood statement may be issued. Rivers elsewhere across north central and southwest Montana have also generally leveled off. However, steadily warming temperatures throughout the week will increase snowmelt at higher elevations, which will likely cause rivers and streams to rise once again. Although forecast river levels during this time are remaining below flood stage, additional scattered showers are expected, and they may temporarily add to river rises in spots. Therefore, this situation will continue to be monitored for possible further hydrologic highlights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 75 46 79 / 20 10 10 10 CTB 38 76 41 78 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 43 76 47 80 / 20 20 20 20 BZN 38 73 42 78 / 30 30 30 20 WEY 32 68 34 71 / 30 40 40 30 DLN 40 72 44 76 / 30 40 30 20 HVR 42 78 46 84 / 20 10 10 10 LWT 41 70 46 77 / 20 20 20 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov