AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2014-05-20 21:03 UTC

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519 
FXUS65 KTFX 202103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Tue May 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...Showers and Isolated thunderstorms
continue to develop and move across the area this afternoon as
weak instability no significant sheer will cause the showers to
form as a pulse storm archetype. This should not support any
damaging hail or wind...however some gusts towards 30 mph or dime
size hail will be possible with strongest storms. Storms are
expected to diminish towards sunset as thermal surface circulations
die off and a stable boundary level develops. Temperatures will
climb through Thursday...although the limited moisture will
prevent widespread shower and thunderstorm formation through the
remainder of the short term.  Suk

Thursday night through Tuesday...Medium range models are once
again showing good agreement through most of the period. Forecast
will be dominated by a moist and somewhat unstable southwest flow
aloft as an upper level trough remains along the west coast.
Model guidance continues to indicate warm temperatures with most
lower elevation locations approaching or exceeding 80 degrees on
Friday. However, as the moist southwest flow aloft continues into
the weekend it will bring cooler temperatures and an increasing
chance for daily showers and thunderstorms for the weekend and
early next week. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
Atmosphere will become slightly unstable after 20Z with sct light
to moderate SHRA and a few TS possible. Generally expect VFR 
conditions to prevail through the forecast period, except in the 
vicinity of any showers and/or storms...where erratic wind gusts
and briefly lowered CIGS are possible. Shower activity will
diminish after 02Z/Wednesday. Uttech

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The East Gallatin River near Bozeman, which has remained near
flood stage the last 24 hours, have seen a few rises but has
generally remained near flood stage. Have elected to let the
warning expire for the timing being... although some brief rises
above flood stage are possible. Will continue to closely monitor
this system and if a dramatic increase in river level occurs then
another flood statement may be issued. 

Rivers elsewhere across north central and southwest Montana have
also generally leveled off. However, steadily warming
temperatures throughout the week will increase snowmelt at higher
elevations, which will likely cause rivers and streams to rise
once again. Although forecast river levels during this time are
remaining below flood stage, additional scattered showers are
expected, and they may temporarily add to river rises in spots.
Therefore, this situation will continue to be monitored for
possible further hydrologic highlights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  75  46  79 /  20  10  10  10 
CTB  38  76  41  78 /  20  10  10  10 
HLN  43  76  47  80 /  20  20  20  20 
BZN  38  73  42  78 /  30  30  30  20 
WEY  32  68  34  71 /  30  40  40  30 
DLN  40  72  44  76 /  30  40  30  20 
HVR  42  78  46  84 /  20  10  10  10 
LWT  41  70  46  77 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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