936 
FXUS62 KILM 192339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE GULF STATES. A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTH FRIDAY MAY STALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS FLAT CU FIELD EVAPORATES WITH THE SETTING SUN. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE VIRGINIAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERHEAD OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SUBSTANTIAL AND FAST-PACED TEMPERATURE DROPS THROUGH
LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING OUR UNDER LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR DOME. UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST EXPECTED.

HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURVIVING CIRRUS TO RACE OVERHEAD FROM THE
NW TONIGHT...BUT A FEW WISPS AND TENDRILS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL COOLING AND MINS OCCURRING NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM
THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TUES
MORNING WITH A COOL START TO THE DAY. INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS AND
PLENTY OF MAY SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL. THE HIGH SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH
WED AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON ALOFT. AS HIGH SLIPS SOUTH LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF AREA AS MINOR
PERTURBATION RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUES AFTN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS REACHING OUR AREA WHILE ANY PCP REMAINS NORTH
AS DRY AND SUBSIDENCE RULE.

THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED BY WED AFTN AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED PRODUCING AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WITH
WAA. WITH A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON
WED AND WAA...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD 80S TO NEAR 90 ON WED. THE
RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH WED AND IT MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH TO SOUTH TO ALLOW A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE NW FLOW
TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS FOR WED NIGHT BUT AGAIN ANY PCP
SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HOT DAY TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER
RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL LOCALLY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE BECOMING
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 17-18C...WHICH
COMBINED WITH DEEP NW FLOW (DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT)...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR TO 90+ EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. IT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
2014 SO FAR (92 ON MAY 8TH AT ILM, 94 AT FLO ON THE SAME DAY).
EVEN THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID/UPR 80S AS THE SEA
BREEZE GETS PINNED ON THE SHORE.

CHANGES BEGIN THEREAFTER. LARGE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAT ON
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED SOUTH TOWARDS THE MS VLY AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS LEAVES THE
REGION ENTRENCHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES BECOMING SANDWICHED IN THE LOCAL VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE...A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WAVER NEARBY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE ILM
CWA...AND GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDER-DOES THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LACK OF SOUTHERN GAIN OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER AND
STRONGER...AND THE LAST FRONT OF THIS TYPE ALSO MADE IT WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SO...WILL SHOW THE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE PERIOD. EVEN STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
RAPID DRYING WILL SUPPRESS MUCH OF ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SCHC SUNDAY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS FRI-SUN WILL HOVER AROUND...TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW...CLIMO. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH A LOT OF SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...PERIODIC BOUTS OF MCS-DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS IN THE FORM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL AC/CI IS EXPECTED AS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOP WELL NW OF THE AREA AROUND THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY.

CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MEMORIAL DAY WILL ALSO BE NICE...WITH
TEMPS AROUND CLIMO ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH DECREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB TO
CALM. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH SOME TEMPO MVFR GROUND FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. VFR WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIMITS US TO FEW/SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 5-8 KTS. ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZE PASSAGE WILL
CREATE SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...WILL LIKELY DROP SCEC HEADLINES WITH THE
NEXT ISSUANCE AS NEAR-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE SUNSET. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ROUGHED UP WIND- SEAS PRESENTLY DUE TO STIFF ENE-E WINDS. WIND-
SPEEDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING BRINGING VASTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.
THE WIND- WAVE PORTION OF THE SEA- SPECTRUM WILL LIKEWISE
EASE...LEAVING MAINLY E-ESE LONGER PERIOD WAVES ROLLING TO SHORE.
2-5 FOOT SEAS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING...THEN 2-3 FEET
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY UNDER AN IMPROVING TREND. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDING OVERHEAD TUES MORNING
WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH LATE TUES INTO WED. THEREFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TUE AS RETURN
FLOW SETS UP. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND CREATES A PINCHED
GRADIENT. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WHILE
SWAN PRODUCED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. I
CAPPED THE SEAS AT 5 FT AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. OVERALL SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT WED AND WED NIGHT AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL HEAD INTO PRECAUTIONARY CONDITIONS LATE WED
BUT MAY REACH SCA FOR A FEW HOURS WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL RIDGE TOWARDS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT
THURSDAY...WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 10-15 KTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN WAVER IN THE VICINITY...CAUSING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A
RENEWED PUSH OF NW WINDS DRIVES THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED. SEAS DROP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ON THE LIGHTER
WINDS...BECOMING 1-3 FT FRIDAY...AND EVEN LOWER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ