099 
FXUS64 KCRP 180526 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1226 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 12Z ALL
TERMINALS...POSSIBLY NOT AT KLRD BUT DID PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN
THERE. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY 18Z (AROUND 15Z AT
KLRD)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH WINDS TODAY (BUT STILL
GUSTY)...AS GRADIENT FORECAST TO BE A BIT WEAKER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND HIGH. NEXT ISSUE IS WHETHER MVFR CIGS
RETURN BEFORE END OF FORECAST 19/06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS 06Z...EXCEPT COULD DEVELOP AT KVCT WITH
SUSTAINED FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF (HENCE DID PUT IN A
TEMPO FOR KVCT). MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AOA 19/06Z ALL BUT
KLRD...AND WILL HAVE TO PUT THAT IN THE TAF ISSUANCE AT 18/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINTS.
ALSO CANCELLED SCA FOR THE BAYS...AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. SCA CONTINUES FOR GULF WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS. 

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ALOFT. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF
THE MORNING. THINKING WE'LL SEE THE 2-3KFT DECK SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO LOSE THE MVFR CEILING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014/ 

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST INTO
SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS WILL ADVECT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE DUE TO
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE WEST SOME ON SUNDAY. WENT CLOSER 
TO THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE A
REPEAT OF NIGHT TIME STRATUS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT)...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN SOME AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN BAYS BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER DIMINISHING TREND OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGING 
DOMINATES OVER THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH 
AT TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING 
THE EARLY WEEK. LOW LVL MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS AS UPPER LVL 
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE 
LOWER PACIFIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES 
EJECT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS A JET 
STREAK EDGES INTO THE REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE 
POOLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME VARIANCE 
LIES BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS TIME...WITH THE GFS KEEPING HIGHER 
MOISTURE AND PRECIP LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE 
THE ECMWF IS MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE. KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS OVER 
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPANDED MENTION OF 
SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAY  
INCREASE POPS LATER AS MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. 
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY MID 
WEEK DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN SHIFTING 
EAST...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  88  70  87  71  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          65  87  68  88  70  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO            70  94  70  96  73  /   0   0   0  10  10 
ALICE             67  90  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          71  83  73  84  74  /  10  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA           66  92  67  94  71  /   0   0   0  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        67  89  69  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       71  83  72  84  75  /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY 
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS 
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION