588 
FXUS61 KBGM 161904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS TONIGHT BRINGING THE RAIN
TO AN END. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
140 PM UPDATE...
FRONT IS HUNG UP IN OUR ERN ZONES THIS AFTN BTWN WILKES-BARRE 
SCRANTON AND MOUNT POCONO AND UP INTO THE WRN CATS. LAST VORT MAX IS 
NOW COMING UP THRU ERN PA WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN GETTING INTO THE 
POCONOS AT THIS TIME. ASSOC LOPRES LOCATED AT THE DE/NJ BORDER WL 
RIDE UP ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY AND KEEP CDFNT LOCKED IN PLACE THRU THE 
NEXT FEW HRS. THIS WL LEAD TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN FROM THE I-81 
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST THRU LATE AFTN. 

ONCE LOPRES HEADS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TWD 00Z IT WL BEGIN TO 
PULL THE CDFNT THRU RMNDR OF CWA AND RESULT IN JUST SCTD -SHRAS THRU 
ABOUT 06Z BFR WINDING DOWN OVR THE CATS.  BTWN NOW AND 06Z TONIGHT 
EXPECT AN ADDNL 1-2 INCHES EAST OF A FLORENCE NY TO CARBONDALE PA 
LINE. THUS, WL KEEP FFA UP THRU 06Z TONIGHT FOR THESE AREA BUT MAY 
CANCEL FFA WITH NEXT UPDATE FM CAYUGA CNTY DOWN TWD BRADFORD CNTY. 

TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO FALL FOLLOWING FROPA WITH LOW TEMPS POSSIBLY 
DIPPING INTO THE U30S ACRS THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
STRONG UL ENERGY SPINNING THRU IOWA AT THIS TIME WL NOT BE ABLE TO 
PHASE WITH UPR SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH THRU ONTARIO. A PORTION OF THIS 
WV WL KICK OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS DVLPNG 
AFT 12Z SATURDAY AS IT DOES SO. HARD TO JUSTIFY GOING MUCH HIGHER 
THAN 20 POPS AS THE WRN CNTYS WL LKLY BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE AFT THIS 
WV MVS THRU. MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW WL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL 
WITH SOME LOCALES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. 

IF SKIES CAN CLR SAT NGT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO DIP DOWN INTO 
THE MID-30S FOR OVRNGT MIN. THESE TEMPS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST 
FORMATION ACRS THE VLYS OF CNTRL NY. HWVR THIS ALL HINGES ON CLRNG 
SKIES AS WINDS WL BE DROPPING OFF AS SFC HIPRES BUILDS IN. 

H5 TROF PROGGED TO MV THRU CWA SOMETIME SUNDAY MRNG AND MAY RESULT 
IN SHOWERS DRG THE DAY. H5 TROF WL MV THRU SUN EVNG AND CHC FOR LGT 
SHOWERS WL EXIST EACH AFTN THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH COOL 
CONDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. MON MRNG MAY BRING MORE PATCHY FROST TO 
THE CWA WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE M30S. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND OVER OUR
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO NY AND PA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN IS SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR TERMINALS. THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT ITH (DUE TO LAKE FLOW),
BGM, AVP, AND RME UNTIL THE RAIN DEPARTS. 

IFR CONDITIONS MAY REFORM OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z, WHEN LOW STRATUS OR FOG FORMS OVER THE SATURATED TERRAIN. 

BURN OFF IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z SATURDAY, WITH A
SCATTERED STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG 
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING.

SUN/MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO -SHRA.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-
     037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP