806 
FXUS64 KMEG 120957
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
457 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK.
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO
SUGGEST A WET AND COLDER WEEK AHEAD.

THERE IS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A COMPLICATED SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE MOISTURE FOR THESE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID-SOUTH...IS COMING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-
SOUTH...EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. AND THEN
BEHIND THE FRONT THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND BRING IN COLD AIR
ESPECIALLY FOR MAY.

TODAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY.  

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND MANY
OF THESE WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY/ AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WILL NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...IN PART
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND ALSO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND SLOWS THE PROGRESS DOWN. THE NEW SURFACE LOW WILL
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CONVECTION
WILL END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND THE
INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. 

THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE CAN EXPECT IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO AN ABNORMALLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOWS ABOUT
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL. 

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS
THE 850MB TEMPERATURE ON FRIDAY JUST NORTH OF TENNESSEE AT 0
CELSIUS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MID-SOUTH. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG FOR
SOME WRAP ROUND PRECIPITATION...NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THESE
SHOWERS.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT LOWERING TO MVFR LATE 
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR 10Z-13Z...IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN BY 18Z. 
MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES 12/20Z-13/01Z. ALSO INCLUDED 
VCTS AT KJBR AFTER 13/04Z...NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE...AS A 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS TONIGHT SOUTH 7-10 KTS. 
WINDS MONDAY SOUTHERLY BECOMING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 
KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER 13/01Z TO 7-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING 
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING 
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$