229 
FXUS64 KLIX 112057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT TROUGH AXIS
TODAY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. EXPECT TO SEE NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AN ELEVATED
INVERSION MAY TURNED SURFACE BASED OVER NORTHERN ZONES...RESULTING
IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. 

A REPEAT OF THE WEATHER OBSERVED TODAY WILL LIKELY HAPPEN
TOMORROW AS THE LINGERING REMNANT TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WILL ALSO HELP TO
INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY BY PUSHING CAPE VALUES TO AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CAPE
VALUES ARE HIGHEST AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
NORTHSHORE...BATON ROUGE...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ZONES. IN THE
NEW ORLEANS AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE SEABREEZE ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD KEEP MOST CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN
PLACE AS SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH
WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE
REACHES THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL CAPE VALUES WILL ALSO BE DEPRESSED DUE TO THIS CAPPING
ALOFT...WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGING AROUND 1000 J/KG ON TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE LOWER OVERALL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT TO ONLY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY. 

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE UNSTABLE AND OVERALL FORCING
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A
BROAD REGION OF INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
RESULTANT INCREASED OMEGA OVERSPREAD THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE PW
VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE FORCING IS GREATEST. THE
PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE ARKLATEX. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SHEAR PROFILES
AND LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG COLD AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION TAKING HOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...AND READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.  

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY 00Z AT THE TAF LOCATIONS 
THOUGH SOME -RA FROM DISSIPATING ANVILS MAY LINGER BEFORE 01Z. VFR 
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z BEFORE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SETTLE AT 
MVFR AND UPPER END IFR LEVELS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR 
LEVELS WITH MIXING AROUND 15Z WITH SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY NUMEROUS 
TSRA DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z-22Z MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION 
MAY BE KGPT WHERE GULF BREEZE SHADOW MAY KEEP TSRA FARTHER NORTH OF 
THAT TERMINAL. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6
FEET WILL KEEP ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE
RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE OVERALL GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL TO AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE WARMER WATERS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS TO DROP DOWN TO THE SURFACE WATERS. EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FORM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY 
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR               
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL          
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  85  67  85 /  20  60  20  20 
BTR  72  87  69  86 /  20  60  20  20 
ASD  72  83  70  84 /  10  50  20  20 
MSY  73  83  71  83 /  10  50  20  20 
GPT  73  82  72  83 /  10  30  10  20 
PQL  69  82  68  82 /  10  30  10  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32