459 
FXUS64 KLIX 111703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS.
AREA UNDER A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE COVERAGE MAY BECOME
ROBUST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 18Z-22Z BEFORE THINNING OUT.
CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FROM
DOWN BURSTS BUT ALL ACTIVITY IS IMPLANTED ON DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR CELL MOVEMENTS 15-20 KT TO THE NNW. SOME
MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AFTER
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BASES 030-040
MAINLY AFTER 15Z MONDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/ 

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS PREVIOUS WITH THE PRECIP
WATER AT 1.57 INCHES...DOWN FROM 1.85 INCHES. INSTABILITY HAD
INCREASED HOWEVER WITH THE MUCAPE AT 2321 J/KG AND LI -5. ELEVATED
CAP/INVERSION WAS AROUND 550 MB...BUT THIS WILL BE TOO HIGH UP TO
BE AN INHIBITOR FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY ONCE TEMPERATURES REACH
THE LOWER 80S. WIND PROFILE FROM SURFACE TO 700 MB WAS SOUTHERLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PROBABILITY OF 40 PERCENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ABOVE 700 MB...WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FROM 650 MB TO AROUND 400 MB...AND THIS KNOCKS THE
0-6 KM STORM MOTION DOWN TO 195 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE QUITE A BIT ABOVE 300 MB PEAKING NEAR 85 KNOTS NEAR 150
MB/ 45 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS FORECAST REASONING HASN/T CHANGED AND MODELS ARE 
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK AS ONSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES.

EXPECT DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. LATEST MODEL RUNS...BOTH
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE...ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION TODAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO SOLID CHANCE...AROUND
40 PERCENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR AND NCEP WRF RUNS
INDICATE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY 14Z
OR 15Z AND THEN MOVING OR SPREADING INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ON
AVERAGE...QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...BUT A FEW
PLACES COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY IF IMPACTED BY A
HEAVIER STORM OR TWO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY...
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS. AM CARRYING 20 TO 30
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS
STATES AND FORCING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING
BOTH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SOME TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE REAL DIFFERENCE
WILL BE FELT AT NIGHT...THOUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUNGING INTO
THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CURRENTLY HINTING AT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS KEEP THE MOISTURE AND FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...AM KEEPING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA...RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS BEING 
OBSERVED AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. SOME GENERALLY LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO 
IMPACTING A NUMBER OF THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE 
SITES. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS 
TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE EASING ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY 
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR               
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL          
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  67  86  67 /  40  20  30  20 
BTR  86  72  87  70 /  40  20  30  20 
ASD  83  71  83  70 /  40  30  20  20 
MSY  85  73  83  71 /  40  20  20  20 
GPT  84  74  84  72 /  40  20  20  20 
PQL  83  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$