848 
FXUS63 KFGF 110845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS...AT LEAST THE
ECMWF/GEM/UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS A SLOW/DEEP OUTLIER WHILE
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN THE PREFERRED INTERNATIONAL MODEL
SUITE CONSENSUS. 

LOTS OF FACTORS TO CONSIDER FOR THIS FORECAST. UPPER WAVE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SLOWING DOWN AND WILL LIKELY STALL OR GET
WASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION (CENTRAL
VALLEY) OR PROPAGATE SLIGHTLY NORTH/NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS SET
UP...ANTICIPATE COOLER MAX TEMPS WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH THE
WARMER 60 DEGREE VALUES EAST OF THE VALLEY. THE CURRENT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z. THERE
SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA (GIVEN LOCATION OF EXPECTED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
POSSIBLE WEAK INSTABILITY). MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPPER JET
STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...RAISING SHOWER CHANCES HERE.

ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER CHANCES IS UNCERTAIN...THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. ONE WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK
AFFECTING THE REGION ON MONDAY. A 700MB LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
MONDAY SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING AND HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES QPF VALUES AROUND AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
WHERE/IF STRONGER BANDS CAN SET UP (RIVER LEVELS COULD BE AFFECTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE STRONGER BANDS DEVELOP).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...700MB LOW WILL PROPAGATE TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT ENDING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN (ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD AS MONDAY ACTIVITY). AIRMASS IS COLD...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN
WITH ANY SHOWERS. 

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A SLOW MOVING RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE SYNOPTIC PATTEN. SOME
LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH A SUB-ZERO CELSIUS 850 HPA
AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. EXPECT TO SEE A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WEST COAST RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EAST WITH
ITS AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES BY 00 UTC SUNDAY. HIGHS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD RISE BACK ABOVE 60
DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

CIGS VARIED FROM 9 THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND LOWERED TO 
25 HUNDRED FT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MOST OF THE AREA VFR. FOG LOOP 
INDICATED A CLEAR SKY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL PARTS OF THE RED 
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY 
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CLEARING ON SATELLITE AROUND 3 TO 6 AM AND 
SPREAD NORTH. CIGS MAY LIFT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE 
VFR CATEGORY.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES