359 
FXUS64 KCRP 060912
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
412 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL 
LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW 
LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID 
DAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND WED. MODELS PROG PWATS TO 
INCREASE TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NE 
PORTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE LAPSE RATES IN THE 
MID/UPPER LEVELS BY TONIGHT INTO WED. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES 
TX...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT AND AN UPPER JET STREAK 
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S TX. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL FORCING BUT 
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK TO MOD SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NW CWA 
TONIGHT/WED BUT ALSO SHOW LARGE SFC BASED CIN VALUES. THE UPPER 
SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF 
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MOVING FROM W TO E. TEMPS 
ON WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD 
TO DEEPENING PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES...THUS WINDS ON WED MAY BE A 
TAD STRONGER.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE 
FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS. AT TIMES THE 
WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. 
 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GUSTY S TO SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS S TX TODAY THROUGH WED...LEADING TO MIN RH 
VALUES TO BE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. 
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER 
THREAT IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA 
AS TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 
AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH 
TEXAS. CONVECTION THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SIERRA MADRE MAY STILL 
ONGOING OVER THE REGION SO HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. 
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO 
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7 
TO 1.8 INCHES. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST 
BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH 
AND SWING THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF 
SATURDAY. POPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20 
AND 40 PERCENT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ESP ON FRIDAY IF 
TRENDS PERSIST. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER TO SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES FALL AROUND 1.25 INCHES. DRY FORECAST WILL 
CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 
80S/NEAR 90 OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA 
CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  72  88  73  88  /  10  10  20  20  30 
VICTORIA          86  69  87  73  87  /  10  10  10  20  30 
LAREDO            99  75  97  75  97  /  10  10  20  20  20 
ALICE             91  71  90  72  90  /  10  10  20  20  30 
ROCKPORT          81  73  84  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20 
COTULLA           95  70  92  73  93  /  10  10  20  20  30 
KINGSVILLE        90  71  89  73  90  /  10  10  20  20  30 
NAVY CORPUS       82  72  83  73  84  /  10  10  10  20  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM